If you follow automotive trends, you know SUVs have peaked and we’re now heading at high speed for what are called crossover vehicles, which is a sort of return to the minivan but with a longer nose to make it look like what used to be called a station wagon, … sort of. The carmakers will pour them into the dealers with lots of very forgettable names or alphabets like RDX or MKX or alphanumerics like CX-7 or RX330. Names only a … no, come to think of it, not even their mothers would love those names. It’s a trend and if you wait long enough and hold on to whatever you have now, you’ll have the hot item in another 5 or 10 years. They brought back the Charger, now the Challenger and Camaro are coming back, too. It makes your head spin.
Come to think of it, Triumph keeps bringing back old names and Yamaha brought back the old paint scheme, Norton is coming back and let’s not forget the Vincent and Indian and, … well, we’ve covered all that before.
Do motorcycles take those turns? Choppers have been the hot item for several years but I really think they’re on the downslide. Mini choppers, the small size version of their big brothers, have definitely peaked and a lot of companies previously turning them out have gone under, partly due to falling demand and partly because cheap Chinese copies flooded the market and put the higher priced hand built versions in an impossible spot.
Race replica sportbikes continually become more race worthy and less road ready. Engines for every bike continue to grow in size, it’s almost like no one can figure out new directions so they just continue the old ones indefinitely.
When Honda first entered the U.S. market, they rapidly expanded the market itself, with both new motorcycle types and as a result the number of people who thought riding was approachable. Many have followed, but I don’t see an expansion anymore, more of a shift from one type of motorcycle to another if a new bike is sufficiently appealing to entice a change.
Hybrids and fuel cells are coming along but that’s a new powertrain not a new segment, or is it? Scooters are hot in some areas but I’m not sure they would do well everywhere. Maybe motorcycles just don’t have the clear market changing possibilities that cars have. Let’s see, cruisers, sportbikes, touring, standards and choppers plus dirtbikes and scooters. Maybe the supermotard is a new segment buster but they haven’t taken off yet. Maybe we’ll just continually refine what we already have. What would kick start the market?
What do you think?
One more thing, this is probably one of the biggest reasons why all of the companies are heading over to China to set up retail outlets. There’s a huge unserved market. Now if they can get established before the Chinese make all of their own motorcycles …
mark says
I think the two segments that will gain in popularity over the next few years are supermotards and cafe racers (and their streetfighter siblings).
I’d also not be at all surprised to see a further blurring of the lines between supermotard and streetfighter — that is to say, a bike sharing the basic geometry of a supermotard, but without being what amounts to a dirtbike with street tires. The Ducati Hypermotard concept is a good example — or, for that matter, the Borile single (www.borile.it). Personally I think a cafe racer-style bike with more of a supermotard-style (ie, monoshock, well-suspended) swingarm and a large, torquey single-cylinder engine would be an absolute blast.
–mark
adrian says
I’d tend to agree with mark. I suspect the custom chopper craze is on it’s way out, but it has shown there is a market for custom bikes. With the recent rise in popularity of “naked” bikes, streetfighter style bikes seem like a good candidate to fill that gap. Harley-Davidson was pretty much unable to cash in on the custom chopper craze and lost business to the various chopper manufacters. I would expect the current sport bike producing companies to not make the same mistake.
Supermotoards (gah, what a horrible sounding word…) and sport touring bikes seem like another growing market. And sport touring bikes in particular seem to be able to command high prices from their customers, so probably very inviting to manufactors.
Jenn says
Yes, choppers are on their way out. They look great, but, truth is they are really not functional. Too unconfortable for the true motorcycle enthusiast. These fads come and go, but I don’t think there will be any overall change in the motorcycle industry. Harley will stay on top for tourig, and the major sports bike industry will continue to make their bikes faster. Why change what works.
ntrudr_800 says
Choppers are just looks and sound. To me, most of them look like giraffes. The more you customize it, the more it handles badly (so I seem to notice)…maybe a performance Chopper would do? I do not believe a true motorcyclist would depend on a chopper. I like them. Very pretty! I wouldn’t buy one. Also new emissions laws may put the chop shops out of business.
I see bigger decently-equipped dual-purpose motorcycles, like the suzuki DL650 V-Strom/DL1000 V-Strom (unlike the Kawasaki KLR 650), market uprising. The V-Strom in the motorcycle market is similar to an SUV in the automobile market, more street than dirt, though the Strom is much sportier and waaaayyy more fun. It has a huge gas tank for extended trips. Nice bike. Think about it. It’s very practical…
The naked-streetbike and standard-streetbike market seems to be doing well…Kawasaki came out with their Ninja 650R recently. Triumph’s Speed Triple got high marks (love the headlights and exhaust–it’s art!).
I believe new cruisers will have more of a muscle styling to them like Suzuki’s Boulevard M50 and Yamaha’s new V-max design. It’s for the younger generation movin’ up!
I also believe more people are going to demand a centerstand and a tachometer on their standard-cruiser motorcycles (by saying this I’m trying to start a revolution). More people are growing up with access to higher-technology motorcycles these days. Every bike should have a tach! Bikes are higher performance than cars!
Cruisers and standard-sportbikes need a centerstand if they’re packin’ a chain or belt drive. It’s absolutley ridiculous not to have a “low-tech piece-o’-metal” centerstand on a chain-driven bike! Make it so you can take it off for racing! *DUH!
todd says
I too see the industry shrinking with the current trend of bikes. I think manufacturers need to start introducing entry level bikes again to attract the new motorcyclists. Bikes now are only designed and appropriate for the experienced rider and really only the (very out dated) ninja 250 is appropriate for entry level motorcycling but it is so old looking, new sales are competing with perfectly reliable used ninjas at half the price (nearly free). I think eventually the Chinese and Indian manufacturers will start bringing in smartly styled, sporty, up-to-date 250’s and 400’s for this growing new market segment. The bike’s sales will steadily grow for a few years and eventually the likes of Honda will bring in the CBR250R and CB400SS. Though I’ve been riding for over 15 years I am not convinced of the values of over powered excess (600-1300cc sportbikes) preferring the greater fun and value of a lightweight machine. I am definitely looking forward to this new market segment.
-todd