What’s new and growing in motorcycling? Is there a growth area out there waiting or already present that’s about to explode or primed for steady growth? If you were a motorcycle company and your job was to build a brand new motorcycle, what would it be and who would you serve?
On the flip side, what are some segments with very little growth potential? What areas are shrinking, what’s flat?
How about new ideas that won’t go anywhere? What’s the next little thing, destined to fall flat and end up in the clearance section?
The Kneeslider fearlessly peers into the future looking for trends in motorcycling. We’ve wondered about this before and after more thought we’ve come up with some ideas. Today we’ll focus on the first declining market segment with future follow ups on other downward trends, non-starters and then finally the growth areas.
Declining trend number 1:
Racer replica bikes: Some years ago, some motorcycles appearing in showrooms developed into such extreme performance, razor sharp, highly focused machines no one could possibly utilize them on the street. No matter how skilled the rider, there simply is no place to unleash it regardless of a rider’s concern for the law, a bike with a powerband above 10,000rpm and suspension that begins to work above 100mph is so impractical even the racer wannabes are starting to figure it out. Beyond that, more riders are coming to the amazing conclusion that they will never become road racers. These motorcycles are necessary for a manufacturer to have a stock bike that qualifies for the races and they will produce them accordingly but fewer riders will spend hard earned dollars to own a painful and impractical ride.
If you like to ride a lot, these bikes quickly prove themselves temperamental beasts that want to run, really fast. Many of us have had the experience of running these bikes upwards of 100mph and seeing they really like it there, the engine settles down, everything is working and if it wasn’t for that minivan ahead, the gravel on the road, that guy turning left across our lane and police that frown on this sort of thing, the bike would be perfect. In the real world where more and more riders find themselves, racer replicas don’t work. It’s not a finger pointing lecture to say these things belong on the track, it’s simple reality, they only work on the track. As more buyers realize this, the segment will shrink despite the best efforts from the manufacturers.
Examples of what I mean by racer replica would be the GSX-R, R1, R6, ZX-10R and similar bikes.
Stay tuned for part two of this continuing series.
C. J. Luke, III says
First I would address the future:
Diesel!
New technology diesel engines demonstrate that they can deliver performance that exceeds gasoline engines. The really cool thing about diesel is that you can build Cruisers (ker-lump…ker-lump…ker-lump types); you can build touring bikes (quiet…long haul…reliable…high milage); and you can build sports bikes (high torque…high horsepower). In my opinion, all of the motorcycle companies should have a diesel R&D program going on right now.
It would also be a possibility to venture into the hybrid (motorcycle/car hybrid) area. Low cost, energy effecient (diesel) three wheel and four wheel versions for office commute…shopping…running around.
As for what is out…..
I think you are wrong about the Racers….too many people that buy them now (read 99.99%+) can’t even come close to getting out of those bikes what they have to offer…even on track days…which 99.98% of them will never do. But, they are the ones that must have THAT bike! That segment of our population will always be with us and will always buy the bike that is way too much for them to handle.
I think that the “Sports Touring” and “Touring” will become one, Cruisers will always be around but will dwindle in market share, sport bikes will remain strong, scooters should give up market share to the “hybrids” I mentioned above…at least in the U.S.A., “dirt” bikes might dwindle some but not go away as they will be primarily “recreational.
Of all the above, I think the greatest area for expansion will be the hybrid motorcycle/car with diesel power. Keep it simple, small, economical, with protection from the weather and easy for anyone to drive. You build a combination like that and you won’t be able to build them fast enough!
Kipio says
Well, I just bought a used Yamaha YZF-R6 a week ago. 🙂 Maybe I can comment.
First of all, I find it weird that all of the motorcycle press calls these bikes “repli-racers”. This must be a legacy from an era before my time. So far as I can tell, these motorcycles are taken off the shelf, put through modifications that are fairly similar to what a street rider might do to them, and raced in series like AMA superbike and AMA superstock. They aren’t replicas of anything; they are already racers, or “almost racers”. That doesn’t really pertain to your argument, it’s just something that I’ve always found weird.
I think your argument makes sense from the perspective of the fact that these motorcycles truly aren’t practical for many tasks. But they haven’t been for many years, and are still hot sellers. I think most people that purchase these motorcycles do so not because they are practical for many different types of riding, but because they look cool, are brag-worthy and are the “best” on paper. In my college town, I see people riding them downtown with inappropriate clothing and and low speeds all the time. I almost NEVER see them out in the twisties where they would be more fun. So the question becomes what has changed in the demographic who are purchasing these machines to make them choose a more rational mount? That seems like the kind of evidence needed to back up your assertion.
So, if I think these motorcycles are so impractical, why did a buy one? Last year, I did a track day an immediately became hooked. My “naked standard” had a sloppy suspension and I was already scraping hard parts. It wasn’t that it wasn’t fast enough, it was that it just wasn’t “good” enough for the track. Perhaps if the big 4 built their standards with better clearance and suspenders people like me would not be buying “almost-racers”. However, as I alluded to above, I think I’m in the minority for the reasons I bought my sportbike.
Finally, I have only been on the R6 a tiny bit so far, but I am surprised by how comfortable it is. My initial reaction was that it was MORE comfortable than my naked standard! I bought this particular model because it was the most comfortable in its class, and I haven’t done a long enough ride to really get a sense of how much of a rack it is, but so far, I’m pleasantly surprised.
kneeslider says
Hmm …, looks like this will be an interesting series 🙂
And, just so there’s no confusion, I LIKE these bikes. Riding the race ready or race replica contingent is an absolute blast. Also, there will always be buyers for these bikes. I am in no way saying these are bad bikes, they’re engineering masterpieces with breathtaking performance.
In future installments I’ll explain my reasoning here a bit more as I explore other segments.
hoyt says
agree, Kipio….after learning on a CB350, and “deciding” that I was hooked on this hobby, all I could think about was getting a 600 cc sportbike.
The early 20’s crowd & trackday growth will support the racebike sales enough to maintain the numbers. But, I think this segment may change within itself with bikes like the Triumph 675. It would be cool to see one of the Big 4 build a triple. The success of the Triumph in the British racing series may help.
Declining trends? With baby boomers getting older, I can’t see them buying new bikes the size of Goldwings or H-Ds luxo tourer, no matter how good they handle for their size. Maybe Honda will make a scaled-down size? An automatic may help maintain its numbers.
palegreenhorse says
i agree this segment of the market will diminish. my dad has an R1 (bought one, sold it when he was going to move and then ended up rebuying when it took longer to move than anticipated). it is his favorite bike to ride when he is only 1 up. i look forward to trying it out when he finally moves. he finds it fun at (generally) non-track speeds. though he likes to dream of going faster and getting more power, less weight etc. and so there will always be buyers for the fast bikes, but most riders want something fun at speeds they can attain on normal roads in normal conditions. one thing that this segment does have going for it is the appeal to short riders. =)
Tor says
All I can really think of is that it seems a bit ridiculous in this age for companies to not offer at least as an option, an automatic.
Sportbikes aren’t going anywhere. As long as there are 18 year olds who prefer too look ‘cool’ rather than be comfortable* there will always be super sportbikes.
* Yes, yes, I’m well aware some people find no discomfort at all while riding sportbikes.
aaron says
regarding race reps: i think they will split, with the extreme performance going upmarket, costing more and staying impractical. think ferrari, lamborghini. you’re only expected to drive it for fun, maybe 5-6 times a month. the mass market bikes will become more civilized, comfortorable. like a harder edged vfr.
BTW: I had a 675 out for 20-30 mins this past weekend, almost the perfect bike. maybe I’m getting old, but it felt like I was sitting on it, perched about 3 inches too high. the bars hadn’t changed though, so they were 2-3 inches too low…
give it a corbin and helibars before I test ride it again, and I’ll probably fall in love!
keith says
people need a reason to own. ‘the joy of the open road’ can’t really be explained to a friend, so to impress someone you get a bike that has top specs and then tout numbers and figures to your friends so you can prove to them you got the right mount.
is what the manufactures need is something beyond specs, beyond the most HP, the highest RPM, the biggest back tire, the loudest pipes. They need to give the consumers some other reason to like/buy a bike. how about customization?
start with a faily inexpensive bike, average specs all around, but highly customizable at a very reaonable price. then each person can have the basic bike they want… and when asked ‘why’d you buy it’ they can say it is the best to customize.
Prester John says
The future seems to be already happening!
Smaller Goldwing, with automatic? That would be the Silverwing, now in its fourth model year in the USA.
Not-too-expensive bike that’s a great customizer? Over 50,000 folks buy a new HD Sportster every year. Give me $10,000 and a couple weeks and I can return you a Sportster cafe racer, Sportster two-up tourer, or anything inbetween.
Down trend on street legal race bikes? Already happening in the UK, for all of the reasons you mention plus insurance costs.
Crystal ball time:
Ups – Motorcycles from Asian companies you’ve never heard of, automatic transmission cruisers from the major brands, dual sports, big scooters, racing attendence, riding resorts, global products (like ECE 22.05 helmets, EUROIII compliant bikes), restoring/collecting/riding/racing old bikes, women riders, lane splitting.
Downs – Hard edged street legal road race bikes, super heavy-weight cruisers, American Honda, Snell, loud pipes.
Destined to be a footnote – Super motards, air bags, three wheelers
Tom
todd says
I never understood it. Sure I’ve ridden plenty of “fast” bikes but I never felt that they were any more fun than all the other bikes. After 15+ years of riding and riding all sorts of bikes, I’ve grown to love the lightweight, low capacity road bike.
I don’t know why there aren’t any 350cc sport bikes. Something that doesn’t comrimise on components, quality, or modernity just because it isn’t the fastest on the road. Why are they still building Ninja 250’s out of leftover stock from 1984? They sell thousands upon thousands of those things every year, more than many brands can sell of their entire line ip. It definitely isn’t because they are up-to-date or even that good looking. No, it’s because they offer acceptable performance, great quality and durability, and great value (they also happen to have a low seat height). You would tend to think that if they actually spent a little time on the styling they could double their sales.
Honda used to have the CB1, basically the CB400F or even the niche GB500 or 650 Hawk. I like these bikes a lot. They have more capability than I have, are faster than I’ve ever needed to ride and looked great. Why aren’t bikes like this still available? Why is a Yamaha R6 considered an entry level bike, with barely adequate performance? Have these people ever even ridden an R6? These things are pure race bikes.
I once read an article from a 1969 review of the “new” CB750. Their conclusion was that it would not prove very popular because it was more bike than anyone could ever need or use. It was only reccommended for “highly experienced riders”. When the Kawasaki Z1 came out they called it a monster that could only be tamed by the most daring rider. Now-a-days the Suzuki SV650 can smoke both of those bikes yet it is most often reccommended as a decent first bike to wet one’s appetite for motorcycling. Why has the perception and respect of power and speed diminished so much over the years?
I think too many people read too many motorcycle magazines. Those mags tell you the CBR is slow leaving turn three and the GSXR can carry more speeds through the corner. What does this do? This tells all the teenagers (and likewise minded people) that the CBR is “slow” and that the GSXR “handles better”. Hello! these things are both excellent bikes and no one but professional motorcyclists will ever notice the difference between the two or ever extract the most performance out of either of them.
This reminds me of something I realized many years ago. I once traded bikes on a ride with a friend who owned a CBR600F3. He rode my Honda GB500. His impression was that there wan’t much difference between the bikes other than sound and feel (smoothness). I didn’t understand this at first, his CBR made well over 80 hp where my GB pushes a little more than 33 hp. It wasn’t until I found out that he shifts his bike between 5000 and 6000 RPM until I understood the larger problem; he wasn’t the only one. I fear the majority of riders are only revving to 5500 rpm and getting 20 or so HP out of their bikes. This could explain why people think a 600 is slow and think they need a 1200. A 1200 probably puts out 40 hp at 5500 RPM, that seems to be what people want. Me? I ride every bike like it’s 50cc, bringing it well up into its powerband almost regularly.
-todd
congratulations, you’ve read this far…
sfan says
Why has the the Mazda Miata always been so popular? Why will so many people still have an emotional connection to them 20 years from now when the originals are “classics” adored and still driven by life-long fans? It won’t be because their design made a bold and brash statement. It won’t be because they had the latest and greatest new gadgets. It won’t be because it was the fastest, hardest cornering, monster braking that brought in the best numbers at a track comparison test. It won’t be because the owner is compensating for anything.
I think it may be because of a whole bunch of subtleties and intangibles woven in with sound engineering, reliable construction, and tasteful looks. These, and some mysterious “zoom-zoom” have created a driving experience some people will never get tired of.
What motorcycles have stood in this ground over the years and, more important, are they still there for you? What current bikes are candidates? Whatever they are, I’d like to see more manufacturers striving for this sweet spot in in at least some of their line up.
Bryan says
If I’m reading the market indicators correctly, it seems Recreational Vehicle Company’s seeking to garner more market share during this transitional period from gasoline towards electric vehicles (the next 5 to 15 years) should focus on two things:
1. Produce a breakthrough spark-ignited, ultra-lite weight air-cooled diesel engine for ATV and Street use. Efficiency and mileage will mean everything in the next several years—especially where recreation is concerned. Such engines should average at least 75 to 150 MPG (depending on motor size and driving style), generate 30% more power at lower RPM than their gasoline predecessors, burn ultra-lean and operate at lower temperatures. Such engines should remain tweak-able and be capable of burning #2 diesel, Jet A, recycled cooking oils and Bio Diesel. This alone would help achieve maximum positive PR and generate amazing public interest for the company who does it first!
2. Build lighter-weight, simpler, more reliable, longer-range and easily customizable products (see below).
2010 – Now THIS is a BIKE!
What type of bike will successful manufacturers be building in 2010? If they pay attention to the above, it should sound something like this: A 186 pound torquey two-stroke, air-cooled diesel version of Honda’s CRF250X or Yamaha’s YZ250F producing around 46 HP and 38 ft/lbs of torque with a max speed of 92 mph from the factory. This engine should average about 340 miles on a 3.4 gallon stock tank (100 mpg) and pull like a mule until you hit the kill switch. Exhaust gas temps will be remarkably cool—-nearly 690 degrees lower than that of gasoline bikes—-so extended harsh play in deep sand should not be a factor. It may have Dunlop or Michillen’s airless “tweel” technology giving it superior characteristics both on-road and off.
ADDITIONAL OPINION
Diesel is an intermediate step until electrical storage technology matures. As such, our Recreational Vehicle Industry–as-well-as moto-enthusiasts world-wide– should push for the immediate development of ultra-clean, ultra-efficient diesel powerplants. Nothing would say “GREEN” or “RESPONSIBLE” more than if our Industry led the way in ultra-efficient Diesel development. It would demonstrate we are serious about protecting and preserving our riding area: Planet Earth. If we beat the auto industry to this goal it will make quite a statement as to who is REALLY interested in caring for the environment! Yes, a powerful, long-range, quiet, electric bike would be the ultimate in responsible fun but until certain other technologies have matured, super efficient Diesels are our best bet for the next decade.
sfan says
I agree with Bryan’s comments about high tech, high efficiency, green diesel is a _major_ opportunity.
Uriah says
Right on Bryan, though as a little nitpicky thing you should reverse your numbers on hp vs torque– diesels are torquey with low hp. I am totally with all the above posters regarding seeing some really nice low-displacement bikes out there. The original Harley WL (’36-’51) motor was only 739cc, and it had way more power than was needed to move that huge hunk of steel. A really well-built and hella stylish standard with a big aftermarket available in 450 and 650 diesel motorcycle with an automatic transmission and a big tank would sell really well all over the world, even if big cruisers continue their utter and complete domination of the US market. The Harley Sportster can pretend to be anything from a tourer to a race bike– keep it simple and elegant so it’s easy to work on, keep the price low, and offer models using the same drive train in a variety of configurations for different sized riders both big and small (I’m 6’7″ 400lbs– I had to custom machine extended foot controls for my Honda CB400 when I wanted to learn to ride without buying a big new cruiser– that said, it did an admirable job of pushing my weight uphill though I never tried for highway speeds– little people have even worse problems, so I hear). If say Yamaha or Honda, two companies with very good reputations and worldwide distribution models, came out with (what used to be called) a mid-sized bike for a low low price that potentially ate bio-diesel for close to 100mpg and 300+ miles per tank, could touch 100mph downhill with a tailwind, and be really super fun to ride in the city, on windy bumpy back roads, or even at the track with a few minor upgrades, they’d really have something. Using the same basic chassis and drivetrain across a standard, cruiser, and cafe-racer styled bike could build a large aftermarket. Additionally supporting the both models with some high-performance parts and if you sold enough of them you could sponsor model-specific amateur racing leagues. Again, it might not really take off in the US, since Harley owns the market and we’re too wrapped up in the whole world domination kick to appreciate cheap simple fun when we could have bigger, faster and more, but such a thing could be very popular among our disenchanted youth.
I’d recommend a 125 or 250cc model, but already scooters have all but eaten up the small motorcycle segment, and that is probably going to continue. Automatic transmissions are popular. Not having to straddle a 26″ tall hunk of foam is popular too. And they really are fun, even for giants like me, though I’d wager I look a little funny on anything short of my big cruiser. That said, how about seeing some diesel going on in that front as well? Biodiesel seems to me to be the best available option for alleviating the whole petroleum supply issue.
Anyway, a bike like I’ve described would be nicely upmarket in developing countries (can you say India and China? 2 billion potential customers there aching for a little motorized freedom at an affordable price) while still being affordable for those markets, and western countries get the benefit of a super-cheap bike, whether to learn on or to ride daily.
Also, that trike-scooter thing? Awesomeness. The reversed sportbike from spain also seems cool.