A report from the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) discussing upcoming safety features for cars, also says the agency will decide by next year whether or not to make ABS a required feature on new motorcycles. According to the Detroit News:
An insurance institute study showed that the rate of fatal crashes was 28 percent lower for motorcycles equipped with optional anti-lock brakes than for those same motorcycles without them.
Motorcycle deaths have more than doubled since 1997, from 2,116 to 5,154 in 2007. The motorcycle fatality rate has also nearly doubled from 21 per million miles traveled in 1997 to 39 in 2007. Injuries also have doubled.
Some riders will welcome the proposal while others will say it’s just one more system that can fail. ABS is a fairly well proven technology so it may be more an issue of cost than anything else. Currently, some models give buyers a choice between ABS and non-ABS equipped bikes, but, this indicates the choice may soon be going away.
Will this apply to all models or will it just mean those offering ABS as an option must now have it on all units? Which models would be included in this requirement was not stated and may not have been decided at this point. No specific timeline was specified.
Link: Detroit News
UPDATE: IIHS Study pdf file of study cited in this post. Thanks, zip22.
Bigshankhank says
Oh thank goodness the gov’t is going to protect me from myself.
verbal says
Does the ABS lower the crash rate, or do careful riders who are already less likely to crash choose ABS?
Canajun says
ABS systems can be a benefit, especially for riders who are either un-trained or poorly trained in emergency braking and accident avoidance situations (likely the majority).
However I am ALWAYS suspicious of insurance industry statistics as they are inevitably skewed to the advantage of the industry – either as a justification to increase rates or to avoid litigation. In this case, I would like to see how the statistics address the fact that riders who choose ABS systems are likely more safety conscious and consequently more cautious than some of their contemporaries. Is a 28% reduction calculated based on the same make and model of bike with ABS being the only difference. Is it among riders with similar skills and experiences? Etc., etc.
chris says
Now bikes won’t pass inspection when the idiot light comes on indicating that the system failed. I’ve owned 6 cars/trucks with ABS, and all of them at one time or another failed, causing the light to come on.
anon says
“An insurance institute study…”
Just some idiots confusing correlation with causation, nothing to see here.
mark says
“Just some idiots confusing correlation with causation”
But oh so typical. Let’s leave aside the obvious and real factors — drink, and helmet non-use — and make this issue the manufacturer’s responsibility, who will then be forced to pass on the cost to us.
I just hate these pseudo-scientific “studies”. If you have results, show us the data and let there be an open debate.
Walt says
Questions probing the real meaning of the stats are appropriate.
I am all for ABS and had it fail only once on the vehicles I have owned (bad ABS pump on an Astro van, $750 to fix: OWWW!!) What I get for buying one with the ABS light already on and thinking “how bad could it be?” Bad. Never had an ABS bike.
There are too many who hop on a bike without the vaguest idea of how to control 750 pounds of steel. Witness the witless who use only their rear brake. I don’t know how ABS would fix that, unless linked systems were also mandated.
Finally, do bike ABS systems have an interlock to prevent accidental stoppies?
Simon says
“I’ve owned 6 cars/trucks with ABS, and all of them at one time or another failed, causing the light to come on.”
Well, I’ve owned several vehicles, and all had tires with air in them. On most I’ve had a blowout, so should all tires be solid from now on?
Just because it CAN fail doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. ABS on cars has done wonders for crash avoidance and outcome because it keeps the vehicle controlable. I don’t think this is a bad idea, biggest problem is that most bikers are so damn conservative.
SpaceWeasel says
I get that some people are suspicious of insurance industry stats, and there are some good questions here, but a 28% higher rate of DEATH on otherwise identical models is not something that should be taken lightly.
Remember – less people dying on bikes means a greater number of people will be willing to take up biking, which gives all motorcyclists a bigger voice. Plus, you know, all of your friends funerals that you won’t have to attend.
nortley says
I’d like to know how ABS will protect riders from failing to make a turn and going off the road, or from unseeing car drivers. In the latter case, how many colisions happened too suddenly for any braking system to help? I have no problem with ABS, appreciate having it on my car, but like several others here, question whether this is the panacea that will bestow cycling safety on the world. One more question – ABS on scooters and 125cc dual sports?
bblix says
I really don’t understand the objections here. It sounds to me like some people are taking it as a personal affront to their riding abilities. The “man” isn’t coming after you; You just aren’t that important. When looking at abroad population and a range of driving/riding skills, it makes sense to improve the control systems such that the net change flattens the differential curve (that is, the outcome of their actions produces more predictable responses…this means that overall we are more safe.)
Does it add cost? Sure, but wider adoption would yield lower costs, no? Is ABS a cure-all? No, probably not. There will still be a lot of lousy riders. Would I mind having it? Nope, because, while it’s not something I’ve needed yet, doesn’t mean there might not be a situation where it wouldn’t come in handy and save my (or someone else’s) a$$.
Kenny says
I agree with nortley, though I have to say I locked up my front wheel on my XR200R once (It was between trails and my first ever time with disc brakes, both the XR and me survived without crashing, at least on the road).
I really think this is part of the bigger issue of, do we want to take responsiblity for our own actions or let the government take care of it for us.
Personnally I rely on me, and would rather learn from my mistakes than let some politician take the choice away from me.
Though if there is an insurance discount and all ABS systems are like the new honda sports ABS, count me in.
Niki S says
“An insurance institute study showed that the rate of fatal crashes was 28 percent lower for motorcycles equipped with optional anti-lock brakes than for those same motorcycles without them.”
Surely the type of motorbike traditionally equipped with ABS is a much less performance orientated machine in the first place. That’s what is affecting the statistics of fatal crashes. I mean who is more likely to low side his bike on his favourite ride, the guy on his Honda ST1200 or the guy on his CBRRR?
Neither situation has the slightest to do with ABS as is the case with the insurance ‘study’.
Wait…. wait…. I have a vision….. if you chose to ride a motorcycle that is not equipped with ABS, your insurance premium may go up!
Azzy says
I think I would like to choose for myself. Let me pay more for insurance for it, let me, the individual, make the choice.
It’s the 20’s all over again. We have a mindset in power that tells us that we are all too stupid and unsophisticated to make the right decisions for ourselve.
Im sticking to older bikes, with no ABS and no fuel injections. Why? Because I like the simplicity and working on them when I need to, if I need to.
Mason says
Canajun wrote “ABS systems can be a benefit, especially for riders who are either un-trained or poorly trained in emergency braking and accident avoidance situations (likely the majority).”
Which would lower accidents: Mandatory ABS brakes with an untrained rider, or a graduated licensing program and mandatory rider training.
Add the licensing changes with rider training and let the rider decide.
Europe has many more bikes per capita and a much lower accident rate. Why? Most attributable are the graduated licensing program, and mandatory rider training.
Government needs to analyze what works and then adapt it to work in our country. If it doesn’t work, more regulations aren’t going to help.
coho says
Wow. Like ants boiling out of the nest…
Poke ’em again, Paul.
Simon says
“I mean who is more likely to low side his bike on his favourite ride, the guy on his Honda ST1200 or the guy on his CBRRR?”
“for motorcycles equipped with optional anti-lock brakes than for those same motorcycles without them.”
Selective reading is also a quality. They compared the same bikes with and without ABS (eg Suzuki SV 650 S vs SV 650SA). Most bikers would benefit from ABS, and if they weren’t so cocky and stubborn the government wouldn’t get the urge to legislate. I do not want extra rules, but I do want more bikes available with ABS, so I get more choices for a safer bike.
laurent says
The number of people doing really stupid things on their bikes also doubled during the last decade, unfortunately.
I agree with Mason, better education would probably be more efficient. ABS is great, especially on scooters but mandatory ?
Claymore says
Next thing they’ll be mandating automatic training wheels like on those enclosed bikes.
Walt says
“We have a mindset in power that tells us that we are all too stupid and unsophisticated to make the right decisions for ourselve.(sic)”
I look around at all the overweight future heart attack, stroke and diabetes victims and think, “yes, many of us are that stupid and unsophisticated.”
Nobody that reads KneeSlider, of course.
j huettl says
friends that have abs bikes love them, then after they go down unable to use their brakes to control a slide they start to rethink their love of abs.
good example was a friend and myself riding in the rain side by side and came to a car stalled in front of us and no where to go right or left….40 was our safe rain speed and now what to do, ( two riders with over 2 million miles on two wheels.) we have an arrangement for emergencies, bike to the right (friend) has right of way. So he uses his skill to do a standing slide, But his st1100 won’t allow him to control his rear wheel, and he hangs on a highside for just to long, Bang. Not hurt by the trunk of the car, just 1,200 dollars of plastic wasted. I on the otherhand was able to use my skill and avoid injury (other than a rash on the muffler of my xs11) and stopped a foot short of his vehicle.
newbies please be careful with your abs when approaching a stop sign and dry sand or dirt is present on the pavement, cause one of your brakes is going to lock up a wheel and down you will go. please remember that this type of low speed slap accounts for more broken bones than an unplanned T-Bone.
NO ABS SYSTEM WILL SAVE YOU, SKILL WILL SAVE YOU, and I do not know of one legislative nanny that will come and help you recover.
Hawk says
The ABS arguement reminds me of AirBus vs Boeing. Boeings, I’m told, have a computer over-ride that can avoid things like “Hudson River Landings” Of course it’s nice to have a plane that flys itself …. until something goes wrong and the computer decides to shut the engines down.
On a bike, I’d like to have an on-off switch on the ABS. Switch if off if I want to play. Turn it on in the rain or when I’m not really paying attention … not that we can afford to ride that way anymore.
I guess it’s nice that Big Brother says I have to have all this stuff …. just don’t tell me I have to use it, eh?
john says
The electronics did not shut the Engines on the Hudson river aircraft down.
Mechanical damage from birds did. In fact an electronicly controlled engine is more likely to keep running after serious compressor damage.
Nicolas says
I’m a poor emergency braker, I know it by experience (and few broken bones and teeth), and I’d certainly benefit from having an ABS on my bike. Now, I’m in the “cafe racer” type of bikes which do not have ABS available (my rig is 33 years old), and I’d not certainly give it away to get a bike fitted with an ABS.
Now, the bikes fitted with ABS are more likely Beamers or expensive spport-touring bike who attract more likely older and reasonable and experienced bikers, and that is probably the real root cause of the lower lethal crash rate …
Scott says
Imagine how many lives we could save if we just made motorcycles illegal . . .
GenWaylaid says
I like the idea of ABS on a motorcycle, at least on the front wheel or in combination with linked brakes. If I was going to buy a bike where ABS was an option, I’d probably get it, and I’m normally extremely option-averse. The extra complexity would hardly be noticed on modern bikes with EFI, catalytic converters, evaporative emissions systems, etc.
Still, making ABS mandatory is a big leap, and I just don’t believe that 28% figure. That is a HUGE difference in fatality rates for a factor that is supposedly independent of rider skill. I agree with the other posters that there must be some confounding selection bias, or the numbers were cooked somehow.
trickMETRIC says
I hope they put loopholes in for the little guys the way they did for mandatory airbags in cars during the 90s. Otherwise, this will kill the small and up-in-coming motorcycle manufacturers.
FREEMAN says
This study is a bit of crap. Tell me this, how many more people are riding between 1997 and 2007? Is it, say, double?
monkeyfumi says
You can come up with numbers to prove anything. 34% of people know that.
nobody says
A few/many years from now, ABS won’t be any more unusual than fuel injection, traction control, etc..
Anybody with both experience and a memory can recall the FUD over “always on” headlights killing electrical systems, stranded cyclists everywhere due to unfixable solid state ignitions, cast wheels exploding, etc…
If you want braindead bikes, get a bicycle.
sean says
My BMW 650CS has made me a believer in ABS. I’m a little surprised that it affects fatalities, as my experience is that it is most useful to prevent those low-speed drops that happen when you are stopping at oil- or rain-slicked intersections. I’d have to agree that most of the difference is probably because riders who choose ABS tend to be more experienced riders, and more realistic about their skills and limitations. 😉
I sympathize with Scott’s point – “Imagine how many lives we could save if we just made motorcycles illegal . . .”. If the NHTSA regulation allowed an on-off switch for the ABS, which most ABS-equipped on-off-road models have already, then I think it would be a reasonable measure.
I think many riders avoid ABS because it adds $500-$1000 to the cost of the bike, but that cost would be reduced considerably if ABS were standard equipment on every bike. (And i’m pretty sure that you do get an insurance break if your bike has ABS – if not, look for a better insurance company.)
laurent says
“If you want braindead bikes, get a bicycle.”
My road and mountain bikes have seen more innovation and progress than any motorcycles I’ve ridden.
Capt. Chaos says
Another Big Brother getting involved with my safety.
I drink and drive without my seatbelt and have yet to be killed. Red lights and speed limits are for socialists.
When it is my time to die I only hope it is quick. Anyone involved in a car accident who wore their seatbelts and is still living, should be executed because it was their time to die!
Progress is for losers!
wd515 says
i agree with j huetll. If you know how to ride safe, you shouldn’t have to worry about abs brakes.
great comments captain chaos, good to see people like you making our roads safer. definately setting an example for other captains.
Matt Fisher says
More government sucks. Period. If I want ABS, I’ll buy it, and I don’t need or want some scumbag bureaucrat deciding what’s best for me.
Doug K says
Next the government will be requiring that all bikes shift on the left, that all rear brakes be on the right, that the clutch be operated by the left hand and the throttle the right hand. When things get crazy there will be rules about exhaust emissions, muffler noise and government specifications about tires. Is there no point at which the government will stop intruding in our vehicle’s design? No there isn’t. Welcome to motorcycling in the 21st century.
Wait until your bike is monitored via GPS for speed and accumulated mileage enforcement and tax purposes. Going to happen. Already being testing in various countries. It’s about control for the good of all and more to the point, about someone taking in money.
Katya Mullethov says
This is something I had been pondering for the longest . The oft repeated ” had to lay ‘er down ” yarn . The fact that they did survive a verified soil sampling and are telling this tale lends me to believe that they did not learn anything from the incident , and they BELIEVE that falling down is a suitable means of scraping off speed . If one were to educate new riders about the lay ‘erdown myth while selling up to the trick brakes , that would be a an added value . Bonuses might even be paid . Salaries earned .
Unfortunately , making me buy things is not the NHTSA’s job . Even yard sale bicycles have front and rear discs now , and not because of any alphabet people .
We did that .
johnny says
no stoppies or skids=boring!
James says
I’m half retarded, I can’t make decisions for myself. I need someone to step in and micromanage my life for me. Wheeeeeewww…. There is somebody, thank you government. Excuse me while I go droowwwllll on myself, and figure out how to breathe properly. Oh, I love my ABS on my BMW.
FREEMAN says
I’d like to know if the accidents mentioned in this “study” were of a direct result of whether or not the motorcycles studied had ABS. Another study on the causes and factors of motorcycle accidents in the LA area for your consideration.
todd says
I think the insurance agencies want to stop giving discounts for bikes equipped with ABS. That’s what this is all about; money.
I don’t think this applies to me anyway, I don’t know that I’ll ever buy a new bike.
-todd
frozen prairie says
The Oct 2006 issue of Two Wheels Only compared twoTriumph Sprint STs, one with ABS, the other without. Test riders were former BSB and WSBK rider James Witham and non-professional rider John Hogan. On the non-ABS bike Whit was able to out-perform the ABS machine by a slight margin in some tests (when using front or rear braking only) , but in others (both brakes, wet track) he stopped shorter on the ABS equippped bike. Hogan’s stopping distances were significantly better on the ABS equiped machine in all areas.
I was surprised that the ABS worked as well as it did. It made me think that if I were to buy a big sport tourer I’d opt for the ABS.
On the other hand though, I don’t like the idea of any government agency forcing it on me. Click on the link posted by FREEMAN (thanks for that, by the way) and see who is having most of the accidents. It seems to me that ABS wouldn’t have helped a lot of these riders avoid their injuries, the drunk ones especially.
Thanks also to Paul and the others who run this great website.
MTGR says
Stats can mean anything you want them to, they are nothing but numbers until you decide how to interpret them. Want to prove speeding is good in school zones? Easy, statically kids are only at risk from cars when cars are in the school zone, having cars in the school zone for less time decreases the time kids are at risk – done, now speeding is good around kids. Stupid yes, but statistically undeniable. Why does ABS have to be mandatory? Why not promote the safety message and let people decide for themselves? Because that would be free thinking and personal responsibility, two things that Governments (and Insurance co.) never want because they undermine their control and potential profits!
jack swartz says
Tell the gov’t. to stop taking away our freedom to make choices. I don’t want MANDITORY anything!
zip22 says
I love reading these articles because of all the illogical arguments.
mark, and everyone else looking for the actual statistics, a quick search brings the study up. feel free to take a stab at some analysis.
http://www.iihs.org/research/topics/pdf/r1110.pdf
also, for Doug K, and Claymore – the argument you are making is a logical fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope
For everyone claiming that required training would be better, do you have any statistical analysis? cost-benefit analysis? if ABS can have a large impact without graduated licenses or mandatory training, why not implement it?
zip22 says
MTGR, what a foolish argument. what exactly do the government or insurance companies stand to gain from implementing mandatory ABS? There is one single reason they would do this – Less fatalities. What other reason is there? Its not the ABS manufacturers pushing for this, its the insurers. If less people die on bikes or have accidents, they don’t have to pay out as much.
Reading through the study, some of the other complaints people mentioned are also taken into account (like the number of riders between the years, etc). It’s worth a read, but I doubt any of the curmudgeons here will take the time.
RandyXB9R says
When the government can straighten out it’s own messes, then they can come play with me. Until they show full competence in their own business, they can stay the hell out of mine.
frozen prairie says
Hey guys,
Do read the study (link posted by zip22 above), there are some things in there that surprised me, especially in the last paragraph of section 3: Results. The Discussion section deals with all the points brought up here so far, I think.
The Slippery Slope argument link is humorously appropriate for this topic ! Nice one zip22.
Nicolas says
Well, before making ABS mandatory, I’d rather see HELMET mandatory !
How does that get into account into the NHSA and insurance lobbies studies ?
(yeah I’m sorry I forgot that we are in the land of the free, and it also messes up the haircut)
John says
When will the NHTSA learn that comparing cars to motocycles is like comparing apples to oranges, pardon the cliche. They pull their data from questionable sources as opposed from an unbiased study. The last reliable study that was conducted as to the cause of motorcycle accidents was the “Hurt Report” of the late 1970’s. Although the funding was set aside for such an updated study as of a few years ago, I am unaware as to if it is being conducted. Who knows maybe the money was pilfered by some politician.
zip22 says
Nicolas and John, read the study. its short and talks about helmet laws, automobile comparisons, and crash studies. I’m sure you can check the studies they cite as well.
nobody says
The master debate team kiddies here aren’t old enough to remember the all caring IIHS’s logical efforts to ban superbikes. Everyone else with more hours on the road rather than the internet remembers how well that went.
Look up “IIHS Superbike Ban”, “John Danforth”, etc..
FREEMAN says
After taking a look through this study (thanks zip22) I was wondering how accurate such a study is anyway. If you limit your study group to a specific motorcycle that offers the option of ABS and non-ABS and ignore all the other motorcycles on the street rather than look at the cause and factors that contribute to all motorcycle fatalities, then yeah I guess you could assume that ABS has a benefit. However, this study ignores all other motorcycles on the road and does not reveal whether all other motorcycle fatalities would have benefited from an ABS system on their non-ABS bike. You can go on and on to your hearts content about better stopping distances and better braking control. The point is, it’s not the motorcycle and whether it has ABS or not that should be at the heart of the study. It’s the cause of the accident and contributing factors that lead up to the fatality that should be analyzed and a determination should be reached as to whether or not an ABS system on that motorcycle would have made a flying bit of difference if it indeed didn’t have one to begin with. Otherwise, I have no reason to believe this narrow-sighted study or their estimations.
zip22 says
How would a study analyzing multiple crashes and claiming whether ABS would have helped or not be better? Would you really believe the accuracy of that study more than this one? How would they really know with certainty if ABS would have changed the outcome?
This study seems very straightforward. Here’s how many bikes with ABS, Here’s how many without. Here’s the accidents with and the accidents without. With ABS seems better.
smithmotorwheel says
I’ve been reading the comments the past couple of days and it seems like everyone is concentrating on whether or not having ABS is a benefit for a motorcycle.
I can’t say for sure if it is (and neither can the IIHS). But, if there’s one thing that I learned from taking my statistics courses is that statistics are a tool and not a guarantee.
The real issue is whether or not the government should dictate the design of a motorcycle. If consumers feel that ABS is safer and they choose that option often enough, then motorcycle manufacturers will make it standard equipment. If they don’t, the option will still be there.
Has anyone in favor of making this mandatory considered how a rider that is used to operating only ABS-equipped bikes will react when that system fails?
Training and education are the key to safety. The most dangerous part of any machine is the operator’s brain.
Paul says
I’d like to know how ABS will protect riders from failing to make a turn and going off the road, or from unseeing car drivers. In the latter case, how many colisions happened too suddenly for any braking system to help?
This guy said it for me.
ABS for bikes is stupid !
steve says
I don’t really care for ABS on my vehicles. I have been in several cases where they can leave you brakeless. Really scarey! I think accident rates on motorcycles have far more to do with what is offered for machines and who ownes them with the huge sure in sales in recent years. You need no experiance to go in and buy a 180hp rocket, just money. A 16 year old kid can get a 145mph bike for his first ride. A lady buys a 900# Ultra the day after see takes her riders test. You can’t cover up being stupid. When you ride 80mph on the interstate one car length off the rear bumper of the SUV in front of you ABS won’t save your butt. If you want it you should be able to get it on some models but manditory NOT! The government is so stupid they’ll want ABS on the Enfield Bullit. As for me I will never own it because I own motorcycles I like and plan to keep forever and are rebuildable forever. I have the next 20 years covered and by then they will be willed to the next. Way to many people are caught up having to always have the latest.
Jake says
I don’t think it should be mandatory…Optional yes…The focus should be more on providing low cost training..If the gov’t has to get more involved then provide funding so the basic MSF course is free or included in the price of the bike…
Bob1 says
Has anyone done a correlation between the types of bikes that have ABS, and those that don’t, against the overall accident statistics? I’m thinking that ABS is likely found on more expensive bikes (especially touring and sport-touring rigs), which due to their cost are more likely to be owned by older, more experienced riders. Thus, the fact that ABS-equipped bikes are involved in fewer crashes may be due to the fact that such bikers have fewer accidents overall.
todd says
Yes, the correlation is that more expensive bikes have fewer fatalities. The statistics prove that you will be safer the more money you make.
-todd
stu says
It’s hilarious reading the kneejerk “dont take away my freedom” responses to any commonsense suggestion, especially when the push for small government in the US has led to unaffordable health care. meanwhile, the private sector laughs at this kind of jingoism, while happily pocketing every government subsidy and bail-out package it can.
Kenny says
I found it interesting that the most well represented motorcycle in the IIHS study was the Honda Gold Wing by quite a huge degree which racked up 141 fatal accidents between both ABS and non-ABS models. The next highest was the VFR 800, or interceptor as you yanks call it, which totaled 22 fatal accidents.
The next bit of interesting info was the spread of accidents was primarily in the 50+ age category with 149 accidents between both ABS and non-ABS bikes.
This is out of 228 accidents that are categorised in the report. And this is unaltered data that was used in the report.
Now if only we had data on what age groups are represented on the roads and what kind of bikes they ride then we could draw up a conclusive opinion on this matter.
Or maybe we should just outlaw cars on the road.
That would reduce accidents
Niki says
This is interesting to read the various comments when you think that its not mandatory to even wear a helmet in some states. That’s mind blowing.
Some double standards are afoot.
Jake says
Personally I think warning labels should be removed from everything and let nature take it’s course…
mark says
Thanks for posting the study, zip, it made a good read.
My personal view is that, having read the articles from the UK mag, and seen the results of testing, ABS looks like a Good Thing. All about rider confidence in the front end. Seems as though the best solution is a “funny front end”, such as telelever plus ABS.
Part 2 is the study. On the whole, it is good, and the discussion is excellent. And the folks do point out some of the flaws involved in drawing their conclusions, though there are number that are glaring. To mention a few
+ The absence of BMW. This is a very serious flaw in the study. BMW have used ABS on bikes since the 80s and have more models ABS equipped than any other manufacturer. To remove them from the study due to lacking VIN ID is careless at best, and smacks of dishonesty at worst. I am sure that there are a lot more K-series bikes, with and without ABS, that would have added nicely to the sample size.
+ The sample size. Between 2003 & 2007 there were over 16000 motorcycle deaths in the US. This study covers less than 2% of that population, which is not statistically significant, even if interesting. They are extrapolating a general effect from a very limited sample size. Are your average riders those who buy Gold Wings and VFRs? I think not.
There are others but I won’t go on.
frozen prairie says
Mark,
The reason the BMWs were left out of the study was because it was not possible to know which of those bikes had ABS and which ones didn’t. Remember, we’re talking about accidents that happened across the country over a span of several years; the people doing the study couldn’t look at the bikes to check it they had ABS or not, they could only read the accident reports. Since BMW serial numbers don’t indicate whether or not the machine was equipped with ABS at the factory, there was no way to include them. True, it would have been nice to somehow get them in but it would have required that some really good investigative agency (the FBI perhaps) track down friends or family of all the dead owners of those years-ago-crashed-Beemers to ask them whether or not they knew if said bikes had ABS or not. Not gonna happen.
As far as sample size is concerned, pick up a used Statistics text at the campus bookstore and have a bash at it; you will be enlightened.
Remember too, that the people who did the study are not the people who are proposing that ABS be made mandatory. Attacking the study is just so much tilting at windmills.
And who are “average riders” ? What do they ride ?
todd says
All I know is that I’m not going to buy a Gold Wing and get a BMW instead. I don’t want to wind up being another statistic.
-todd
RobC says
ABS and dirt/gravel are not user friendly. An option to switch it off should always be there for Dual Sport/Dirt bikes imho.
mark says
@frozen prairie
“pick up a used Statistics text” I have done my fair share of it 🙂 In stats speak, there is no way, from a 2% sample, to assume a normal distribution for a population, particularly given the skewed sample set. Which is what they have done in this study: generalized a result from a misleading population. Goldies, lovely bikes and rider that they are, are not a “normal” bike, and their riders are not the norm. And whilst it is valid to compared their non-ABS with ABS versions, it is not valid to assume that comparison holds for all bikes.
It would be like sampling take-out joints in New Orleans and coming to the conclusion about take-out in the rest of the States. You might find the results accurate (McDonalds), or you might find them skewed (Southern BBQ and Gumbo). No way of telling until the population is more representative of the US as a whole.
So, ABS is a good idea, though the conclusion is bad statistics. To imply that there would be a 28% drop in fatalities in the general population if ABS were introduced is wrong. More correct is to “postulate that there may be a drop in fatalities due to the introduction of ABS on all motorcycles, though more research is needed” is not going to sell any tacos.
On the BMW thing, it is just bad methodology. They exclude them on the grounds of “too hard”. If you want a valid study, find a way to get those figures. It would be like checking for loudness of exhausts and ignoring Harley rides because it might upset them.
OMMAG says
I see a pair of nerf bars in someone’s riding future……..
frozen prairie says
Mark,
If I keep defending that study, people are going to think I wrote it ! I can only say that all of your points of protest are dealt with in the Discussion section. Their “conclusions” are not what you are making them out to be. They have concerns about the extrapolativeness (word?) of the data and the small sample size too. It looks like someone in the NHTSA read this study and said ” let’s make ABS mandatory because this study says it’ll reduce fatalities by 38%”, but it doesn’t say that.
Let’s agree to disagree on some of the finer points of this thread and move on to the fatal gumbo accidents.
Oh wait, I think I misread your previous posting.
frozen prairie says
Sorry, I know it’s Paul’s job to post the questions but…
Some of the comments above, and the linked studies themselves, have brought up rider skill as a factor in accident avoidance, so I think this is a good place to ask this: How skilled are we ? How good is the “average” rider ? Are most of us good at basic riding around but not so good in an emergency situation ?
Masonv45 says
That’s what we need!
A study to determine the skills of the average American rider. Also include the skills of the rider versus the capabilities of the motorcycle they are riding (ie. rider on a Hayabusa that cannot execute a double swerve and stop). Skills should include riding ability, “seeing” potential hazards, methods for avoiding accidents, and judgement.
The results of this study can give the government a basis for starting (or not starting) mandatory rider training and licensing.
I bet the riding skills of the average rider are far from the capabilities of the motorcycle they are riding.
(P.S. not picking on Hayabusa riders so please no retaliatory comments)
Kodiakmac says
This is representative of the intentional misrepresentation of data that the supporters of big, intrusive government resort to all the time. There is no necessary conection between riders of ABS-equipped motorcycles experiencing lower death rates and the fact that the motorcycles have ABS systems. Lets examine some facts. ABS systems are available on the larger, more expensive models – bikes that are generally bought by older, more experienced riders. It goes without saying that older riders (a) take less risks, (b) ride at lower speeds, (c) put on less miles at night, (d) don’t drive pissed as often as the younger crowd. (e) have less accidents per capita than the younger crowd, and, (f) the accidents are less serious.
I think further investigation of these statistics might be warranted. It would also be interesting to find out what enterprises are ‘supporting’ this legislative drive.
scritch says
j huettl: Riding side-by-side is dangerous in ideal conditions. What were you doing riding side-by-side in the rain? If you had been riding in a staggered formation, one of you would have probably had much more time to brake safely, instead of both of you having to apply emergency braking AND cope with not having enough room to maneuver on one side.
jack swartz: So, you are not in favor of mandatory food inspection? Or mandatory hand-washing by the guy who makes your hamburger?
Knee-jerk reactions to perceived taking of liberties and extrapolation to the general from personal experience are not valid ways to reduce harm to a population. Philosophically, I would like to agree with those who believe that we should have choices in our selection of risk, but I also believe that some risks apply not just to the individual, but cause enough harm to society in general that limited controls must be placed on individuals. Would you like your next door neighbor to be able to store 5 tons of black powder in his garage? After all, shouldn’t it be his choice to take that risk?
nobody says
“Philosophically, I would like to agree with those who believe that we should have choices in our selection of risk, but I also believe that some risks apply not just to the individual, but cause enough harm to society in general that limited controls must be placed on individuals.”
Then all motorcycles should be outlawed, right? Or at least superbikes should be outlawed, right? The IIHS tried to do just that recently – they even had statistics (with GRAPHS!) to support it. How can you argue against GRAPHS? Think of the GRAPHS!
I happen to like ABS. I also know that when the IIHS is up to something, it isn’t for my good.
Phil says
My last bike was totalled because it didn’t have ABS. My next bike will have ABS. Unfortunately, that will be a little while because my last bike wasn’t the only thing that got broken.
Realistically, if you are cut off suddenly enough you won’t have time to even think about anything fancy like a controlled slide or progressively applying your front brake. It will be STOP NOW. And if you don’t hit the car first you _will_ go down and lose the last 15-20 feet of braking distance. In our case (my wife and I) that lost 15 feet likely made the difference between walking away from the crash and a lengthy convalescence.
Government legislation wouldn’t affect my use of ABS – but it would give me a much bigger selection of ABS bikes to choose from. And for all the elitist riders out there, there will be plenty of grandfathered used bikes to tune your finely honed braking skills on for years to come.
talvod says
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zv3Sacl7JQ