The Kneeslider

Doers Builders and Positive People

Is Any Motorcycle Company Indispensable?

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With so many things to occupy your time and attention, so many needs and wants competing for your disposable income, where do motorcycles fit in to your life, when do your expenditures on motorcycle related products and services or even the motorcycles themselves, move ahead of other potential choices? The motorcycle industry would love to know, but, whether your attraction to motorcycles is riding related, technology based or just as an investment, the question is, does your attraction to and enthusiasm for motorcycles require any one company? In most cases, the answer is no.

This creates a problem for any management team trying to ramp up sales or build profits in any way they can, they need to find those products, services and activities that keep you coming back generating some sales revenue. Do you see their struggle to survive as important to you in any way beyond a short term pang of sorrow for the displaced employees before moving on to something else? Is there anything truly irreplaceable lost when one company closes its doors?

Many custom builders have dropped out of sight with little fanfare but then Buell was closed and that got the attention of many. Though their fans and customers were passionate, there were evidently not enough of them to keep the company going, at least to the degree that Harley Davidson required. Although many are upset, everyone has moved on, Erik himself has already set up shop at Erik Buell Racing, but Buell Motorcycles is gone. Did it really affect you in any long term way? Are you giving up motorcycles because of it? I wouldn’t think so.

Is any motorcycle company “too big to fail” in the current jargon, or indispensable to you in any way, or are they all just names on a list of companies struggling to keep going while the economy tries to get back on its feet? If another big name company turns out the lights, will you still ride and wrench as you always have? I’m betting you will.

The industry is changing and I truly hope every company is trying to change and adapt with it, not just trying to wait until things get better, waiting until the old days come back. I have a hunch those days are gone, but, and this is important, those of us who ride and wrench are still here, searching for the companies that will provide us with what we want. What company will it be, one of the old guard or some new kid on the block? Which company is most likely to do whatever is necessary to survive and prosper? Will the future motorcycle industry be made up of the same old names or a whole host of new ones, a few major players or many smaller builders. I wonder.

Posted on Filed Under: Motorcycle Builders, Motorcycle Business

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Comments

  1. I had dreamed of a Buell for years, since I first saw the RS1200. When the Bro-in-law got an Electra-Glide last year, the wife decided a motorcycle would be fun for us as well. Being that she controls half the finances at home, we settled on a Harley instead. Half a Superglide is better than none of a Buell. I’ll always wish I had that Killer American Made sport bike in the garage, but I understand that I didnt’ do my part to keep Buell in business either. Best of luck and success to Erik and Co.

  2. I’m sure many are going to say HD but it was Suzuki that came closest to actually going under until VW came along. I don’t see HD closing as much as being sold. But to answer the question, no one is indispensable.

  3. No motorcycle company is indespensible. There have been hundreds of MC companies that have fallen by the wayside, and as time passes fewer and fewer people remember or care about their demise. In my opinion the MC business won’t get back to where it was in 2006 for a very long time, if ever. The reason being that the industry has been selling to essentially the same demographic group, boomers, since the late 60’s until now. Subsequent generations aren’t embracing the motorcycle life-style and culture with the same enthusiasm their parents and grand-parents did, and probably won’t have the credit backed by bogus home values that allowed so many to jump in the pool.

    We will see some companies leave this market, we’ll see new ones enter, probably Chinese, even Triumph is building a signifcant number of their motorcycles in Thailand.

    In 1993 the market shrunk from around a million unit sales in 1980-81 to less than 300,000. At that time there weren’t near the number of manufacturers seriously engaged in this market. The reduction in volume is going to force some OEs to reconsider the value of MCs to their bottom line, certainly the consideration of building bikes for the US will undergo some serious analysis.

  4. No one manufacturer is indispensible, maybe, but collectively they give us what I think is a good balance of innovation, tradition, and choice. The loss of any one is a loss to motorcycling.

  5. No manufacturer is “indispensable” or “too big to fail”. When a manufacturer or corporation goes out of business, it frees up capital that can be – and eventually is – used elsewhere. It makes room for smaller, more innovative firms to grow. Just look at how the Japanese filled the void when the British and American manufacturers began to die off.

    Failing manufacturers also provide lessons of what not to do to the remaining manufacturers, if they’re smart enough to pay attention.

  6. I don’t believe that any of them are indespensible. But then again are any of them really gone?
    The Italian and British motorcycle industries are probably the best examples. Both are by-words for passion and nostalgia. Yet the Italians are constantly going in and out of business and then being bought up and revived.
    The old British industry of BSA, Norton and Triumph and many other smaller manufacturers were an example of what happens when you could no longer cut it.
    Yet almost a decade later Triumph were revived and are still going strong with a line up that includes modern machinery alongside modern iterations of their classic designs.
    But if somebody really wants a specific bike then nothing will stop them.
    One of my fathers friends is currently rebuilding a vintage Sunbeam if I recall correctly with nothing but the remains of an engine for a starting point. That means frame, suspension, wheels, controls etc all being custom made because there is no spare parts and only a handful of surviving machines to reverse engineer the designs from.

  7. The only one that is even close is probably Harley, and even they have new/old competitors nipping at their heels.

    Most old brands just sit around and wait to be resurrected – witness Norton, who, if they ever decide to make a street rotary bike will probably sell a ton. Or Aprilia, who from being a non-entity in the US market now has the most desirable sportbike out there currently – even perhaps over the Ducati.

  8. Triumph Norton and Indian were NOT resurrected or revived…only the names were used again, although the Dreer Norton design does seem a most accurate depiction of what the Norton Atlas motor would have evolved into being while maintaining the same basic architecture. The Dreer also keeps the spirit of what the Commando was/is. Back to the original topic, I do think, as mentioned, that there are a certain number of riders on GoldWings and Harleys that if not for those particular motorcycles, they would not be riding.

  9. Even though I’m not a fan, I think HD comes closest to being indispensible to many Americans. It’s really a lifestyle, not just a machine, to a lot of people. I suspect the brand would be snatched up quickly if for some reason the current company failed. I think the future holds more consolidation, fewer small companies, a huge rise in bikes from Korea, China, and India. I bet in 10 years a company like Hyosung will be competing head to head with Honda. There will be a lot more scooters from Kymco on the streets too, as gas prices skyrocket.

  10. As long as a market exists there will be manufacturers to satisfy demand.
    In this instance, whether or not we recognize their names from our personal motorcycling past depends on the fates.

    The world has done relatively well without Rambler or Hudson autos or many of the consumer electronic firms that were swallowed over the years.
    Bridgeport Machine, Southbend, Hendey, etc. all gone or just here in name only.

    Sometimes though name only is all that can and should survive.

    I know very little about business, but if you were to closely consider say Harley Davidson’s business model, is it really flexible enough to weather economic hurricanes?
    Has Harley grown too large on financed money when the financial system itself is reeling?

    Personally, I’ll probably never purchase another brand new motorcycle.
    They don’t fit me and there are just too many other compromises to accept straight off the dealer floor.

    I much prefer modifying a more reasonably priced used model that the aftermarket has embraced and supports rather than hoping the manufacturer will change the fender style or seat shape or introduce “bold new graphics”.

    As a matter of fact, I think it was on this site that was discussed the concept of “buffet style motorcycles” if you will.
    Pick this frame, that engine, those forks, tires, etc, etc. and do your own.
    Now THAT would be a kick!

    Maybe Target could run with it?

  11. If Harley-Davidson were the last motorcycle company standing, I’d have to consider never buying another new bike.

  12. There’s no evidence that Suzuki Motorcycles was ‘ready to go under’ were it not for VW-yes, Suzuki, like every other major dealer has seen a sharp drop in sales, but Suzuki Motor Corp’s financials were in the black in ’09. Suzuki was looking for an auto partnership since it’s deal with GM was dropped last year, and VW was looking for experience in low-cost, ’emerging market’ cars. In fact, IIRC, Suzuki immediately reinvested half of their VW 2.5billion back into VW, so it doesn’t appear that they were desperate for cash.

    These are tough times in the industry, but no matter how it plays out there will always be a two-wheel market, and products to fill that void. Even HD will always be around in some shape or form-it’s brand is too strong to not be. For a resurgence in the industry as a whole, just wait for the next ‘oil crisis’, and see how fast people look at 50-100mpg bikes to help take the sting away from 5.00 gal gas.

  13. As mentioned by others, HD is the only brand that creates its own market. If HD were to fold because of the Financial market, competitors would be fighting over the brand name to bolster their own market share. The”Gold Standard” of bikes would be resurected so fast that the average Joe would not even know it changed owners. Indian, Triumph, Norton, Ducati and yes Harley would never stay dead for long, There Name Brand is worth more than the Factory that builds them.

  14. I believe in the Darwinian approach to business, “Survival of the fittest” and around the world that rule seems to apply, except in the US (ok – the UK and Italy as well). If you have a good business model you should do well and survive, if you don’t, then you won’t. It’s the way if things – it’s business!

    But we motorcyclists can be a very fickle (er: cheap) bunch. We will talk the talk but we don’t always walk the walk. But isn’t that why a lot of us initially got into it (cheap wheels). Some of us have stayed though. I (literally) live and breath bikes and they are one of the more important things in my life and I support my industry all I can.

    Quite often I hear (as I live in the Great White North) from someone that they can get it cheaper stateside. Well, go right ahead, but when your local dealer no longer exists from lack of business, don’t be whining about it. This feeling (for me) projects into our industry as well. So if it is fit it should survive.

  15. MCV, I have to disagree with your assessment of “subsequent generations” – witness the current mega-popularity of Freestyle and Supercross. Travis Pastrana is a household name/brand among Gen-Y. Partially due to the surge of motorcycle purchases among midlife crisis/sudden easy credit Boomers, and partially due to the evolution of our culture, motorcycling has moved into a mainstream perception and acceptance among the younger guys. That said, >90% of the population will still have insurmountable objections to riding, for one reason or another, so until some of the basic paradigms of risk, learning curve, etc. are changed, everybody won’t ride motorcycles. The real key is figuring out what kind of bikes the younger generation really wants, can afford, and will buy, and producing those in addition to more traditional fare so as not to alienate or ignore the cash-cow Boomers and Xers.

  16. good article and comments
    the business will remain big 4 japanese with a smattering of german and italian and american

    we’ll talk about the fantastic one-offs and small companies but buy from these 6 above
    in my estimation the market is about perfect and we’ve never had it so good this is truly the golden age of bikes before technology over regulates our roads

    enjoy !

  17. I would barely notice if they all went belly up. I’d hear it first here of course. I can’t think of any reason for me to go into a motorcycle dealership. They haven’t produced much of anything that appeals to me since the early nineties. I would still be able to go on buying and selling (or riding and fixing) motorcycles regardless of the state of the industry. The only thing that is starting to peak my interest is the thought of emerging manufacturers like Modus or PTS Motors that might take a shot at offering bikes I consider more interesting to me.

    We live in an over-regulated society. It is virtually impossible for a small, innovative manufacturer to come to market with a new motorcycle – or especially a car – without first finding millions upon millions of dollars to do so. Gone are the days of small garages pumping out low volume bikes that can actually be legally ridden on the road. EPA, CARB, DOT, NHTSA, Product Liability Lawyers, etc; Thanks for that.

    -todd

  18. I’ve always wanted an American sportbike. When I was young, no such thing existed. As Buell came on the scene and developed, the idea of American sportbike became less of an oxy-moron and more of a reality. Unfortunately, Harley pulled the plug before Buell was really able to live up to the goal they were steadily working toward.

    Was Buell “indespensible”? Of course not. They didn’t exist when I was in high school and I’ll survive without them now.

    . . . but I think I think the loss of Buell ranks right up there with the loss of Vincent, Norton and Triumph.

    Buell was in a very unique class of motorcycles that moved the industry forward. In a world of sport-bike clones, they were like the mutant that sparks evolution. You can see Buell influence in KTM or any number of bikes that now puts the muffler below the engine.

    Fortunately, Erik Buell lives on and I believe we will see motorcycles that were better than we ever saw from Harley/Buell in the not too distant future. I do hope that Harley will make that as easy as possible for Erik Buell and I will hold it against them if they don’t.

    Harley, on the other hand, may be in worse shape than Buell. Harley has become the walking dead. Keith Wandell doesn’t know anything about motorcycles and he probably wouldn’t even be comfortable spending an evening with his customers.

    How can a company survive when their top management doesn’t even like the product they’re selling? Harley has it backwards. In capitalism, money is like the lubricant that allows the engine to keep running. Money isn’t the ultimate product.

    Harley has enough history and a loyal enough following that they will survive until new management revives their soul, but they are in for some tough times with a management team that is much more focused on money than the product.

    Erik Buell doesn’t need focus groups and marketing strategists. He knows his product and his customer. He LOVES motorcycles and would enjoy nothing more than spending an evening drinking and laughing with his customers.

    It may sound strange, but I pity Harley. They have created their own little hell for themselves.

  19. I have a preference for some manufacturers, mainly based on my experience and the design/price/design mission of the machine. I would ride an ’82 CB 900F or a similar motorcycle if necessary. If a manufacturer fails or stops building motorcycles, I’ll just buy something else. To be viable in the future, each manufacturer will have to be more flexible. They also will have to be affordable or offer some exclusive quality which riders will be willing to purchase at the manufacturer’s asking price. If the manufacturers can’t or won’t, they will fail. Governments should not prop up failing enterprises. In the U.S., there is no Constitutional justification to do so. In a “free market” there is certainly no business of the government to be so involved.

  20. Good article – as some French dude once said, The graveyard is full of indispensable men!
    In the UK, the bike market is mostly sports bikes, followed by scooters, then the life style bikes like the HD crusiers, GS adventure bikes and off roaders. Bikes are half transport, half fun. As the market evolves, one brand will get it wrong once too many and die, and the world moves on.
    Personally, Triumph are doing the best job of building a reason for a brand, Honda are doing worst – HD are not in the picture, although they have done more for the awareness of motorcycling to the non motorcycling public.
    If HD disappeared, every non biker would be upset, but the UK biker would hardly notice.
    Give it 20 years, the market will look very different. There won’t be a four big Japanese block – but what makes up the top brands is anyones guess!

  21. Has anyone considerd what would have happened if John Britten had survived his cancer?

    I saw one of his prototypes racing locally and was totally amazed at the innovative thinking that went into those machines. If he had survived and been given the resources of almost any major manufacturer, they would have taken the world championships for years to come.

    Would this have translated into “sales”? Probably not in North America, which seems fixated on 1920’s technology in an “image” bike. Nor would the off-roaders have even noticed. Nor would I who, now that my younger “wheelie” days are past, enjoys the reliable comfort of an old Wing.

    The beauty of “motorcycling” is that there are so many different facets to the sport. Everything from trials, road racing, flat track, cruising, show bikes …. and just about as many manufacturers to fill the voids. At the same time, how much cheaper would it be for all of us to ride the same bike? If we did like millions elsewhere in the world and bought only 50cc Honda Cubs, we’d all get there …. slower and not so much fun, but a lot more money in our pockets.

    Is ANY company indispensable? No, I don’t think so. Is any company able to satisfy us all? Hell no. Do we lament over the brands now gone … yes. Do we remember the British bike slogans, “Home before dark” and “Lucas, the Prince of Darkness”? Or when we accepted that a Harley 45 meant 4500 miles and that the 74 was a major improvement of 7400 miles? These are the “romance” of motorcycling and there will never be a consensus …. nor should there be.

  22. I think the Japanese manuf. have REALLY missed out on bolstering sales, and have clearly lost market share, due to the “wait and see” approach. How many [truly] new models came out of Japan this year? Compared to European brands?
    If they really want to rebound, they absolutely need to introduce new and exciting products, not just wait and hope that 2008 models will finally move off the floor.

  23. good article, I am tempted to guess who will still be around, I won’t, but more importantly I am left with the bitter question, how would I react if my personal favorite brands closed there doors, it sound’s selfish I know but… anyway I think nortley said it best. “No one manufacturer is indispensible, maybe, but collectively they give us what I think is a good balance of innovation, tradition, and choice. The loss of any one is a loss to motorcycling.”

  24. Though I agree that no one brand is indispensable, many push the industry in new directions. Without the niche brands, the Harleys, KTMs, and Ducatis of the world, who would the big 4 copy and improve upon (mostly in reliability and price)? Without the big 4, who would bring affordable, reliable bikes to the masses? Without the small and independent builders, where would true innovation and style come from?

    I doubt any person, company, country, or even civilization is ever truly indispensable. While its loss may carry global repercussions, it is only human nature to raise another in its place.

    Regardless of what happens, we ride on.

  26. I agree that no brand is indispensabl ,and a true motorcyclist who enjoy’s the ride will always change to another brand.Who cares what brand of bike it is as long as it suits your need’s. However, many people who are one eyed and blindly loyal to one paticular brand, plus, the lifestyle it portrays will leave motorcycling. How could they change to another brand after spending a lifetime rubbishing anything but thier own. For example, if Harley folded many thousands of motorcycle sales would be lost, never to be regained by other brands. Even though I dissagree with any total brand loyalty and the costumes and lifestye image that go with it, it would truly be a sad day for motorcycling if such a great old company should fail. I think if a company can stay flexable and produce motorcycles that are relevant now and in the future ,they will remain viable.

  27. Buell was the beginning & end of a dream for me. I dreamt of finally overcoming my riding Japanese bikes by taking a Buell for a test ride a couple years ago. The bike (XBR1200cg) vibrated like a paint shaker & had so much throttle cable slack I thought it was to meant to keep speeds down by being a rev limiter. I still wanted one anyway but water cooled because I SO WANTED to wear HARLEY colours on an AMERICAN sportbike. I couldn’t buy the1125cr(that came later) because I needed a sport touring bike including 2-up w/ luggage,@ least a 1/4 fairing. The dream is gone & I look longingly @ Triumphs now. I understand the initial Buell shutdown due to slow sales that was supposed to last 4 mos. or so till Jan/Feb 2010. What I can’t fathom is H/D divesting itself of Buell & spending $125 million to eliminate the Buell brand instead of selling it back to BRP who wanted to buy it. Buell conceivably could have continued under BRP ownership, H/D could have pocketed coin instead of spending $125 million & possibly with Erik @ the helm….if it wasn’t for Erik having to sign non-competition clauses forbidding him from competing against H/D. Shame on you H/D. And why didn’t H/D ever produce the VR-1000? So it didn’t win? Neither have alot of Japanese/German/Italian but it never stopped them. Shame on you again H/D. Somebody peek in H/D’s corporate board room quick…oh never mind…I think they’re already deceased. And need to be.

  28. The simple fact is, motorcycles themselves will never be indispensable. No one I know will ever be able to say that a motorcycle is their sole source of transportation, and thus, they are considered luxury items. NO motorcycle company will ever be immune to fate’s fickle hand. Personally, I’d rather eat dirt than EVER buy a Harley Davidson, and their decision to shutter Buell only increases my resolve. But that’s me. No matter how old I get, I will always ride sportbikes or cafe racers exclusively, and that’s how I roll. I really liked Buells, and the introduction of the 1125R and CR was the genesis, the first mass-produced American sportbike that DID NOT HAVE a Harley-based powerplant. I guess now, the only way I’ll be able to get one is to find a used example. Damn shame. I suppose Harley just doesn’t want to ever break into any other market, and I think it’s extremely short-sighted to think their current market will always exist. I will laugh hysterically when Harley finally closes.

  29. Buell’s demise is more of a psychological blow than a real loss.

    I suspect that most of the people who talk up the brand never did buy one.
    But, even if I am wrong about that, the numbers show that in terms of who bought what … Buell purchases were a drop in the bucket of the sportsbike market.

    Buell never sold enough bikes to sustain itself … not ever.

    Just the same … if MV were to go down I’d be disappointed because I never bought one.
    If Ducati were to sink …. I’d feel robbed because of what might have been. Although Duc may very well be beyond it’sbest years.

    If any of the JapBig4 were to tank …. I’d say “So what?” I recall the days of the UJM where every Japanese maker was trying to produce the one motorcycle for everyman.

    Now the ALL try to produce all possible motorcycles for every kind of man.

    It would not really matter which one you took out of the game …. the choices would tend to remain the same.

  30. Talk of the market shrinking to 300,000 bikes, or of the demise of Harley or Suzuki radically altering the motorcycle markt is founded on a very narrow view of what that market really is.

    While western consumers are still important and will remain so for a few more years because of their relatively large spending power, the market has already altered radically. The future of motorcycling is in the same place as the future of most economic growth – and that is Asia.

    Brands you may never have heard of have already eclipsed Harley, Suzuki or others that you may consider to be the big players. Start learning to pronounce names like Zongshen, Shineray, Lifan, Kymco and Loncin. These companies EACH claim to sell more than a million bikes a year.

  31. No. None are indespensible, because strictly speaking, even in the developing world motorcycles are not a necessity. You can always take the bus, truck, electic bicycle, whatever.

    “The only one that is even close is probably Harley,”

    I do not think so.

    Strictly playing the numbers game, if any make was CLOSE to being indespensible to It must be Honda. Because if Honda went belly up, that means Honda Cars, Planes, Power equipment also went belly up. Honda as a corporation is quite large.

    Honda is also the largest motorcycle manufacturer in the world by a large margin and supply a large portion of the developing world with close-to-indespensible transport. If they vanished tomorrow, the impact would be felt…for a while, but for sure somebody else would step in and fill the gap.

  32. The faulty premise of most of these arguments is the motorcycling has anything to do with business or pissing contests between brand owners. Motorcycling did not begin as a social engineering answer to transportation for the masses like the auto although it has become that in the poorest countries. It has never been a business that smart money would invest in. If it hadn’t been for the very deep pockets of Japanese government backed mega corporations looking for something anything to put money into motorcycling would be much as it was in the 50’s and earlier. The purview of individualist, oddballs, thrill seekers and adrenaline junkies. If every manufacturer disappeared tomorrow, world wide there would be an explosion of self expression by the aforementioned group and some of it would be good enough to attract “crazy” money from investors much like all the early makers and the motorcycling lifestyle would continue unabated. If motorcycling history has shown us anything, it’s bikers will build their ride out of tractor and car parts if they have to, to be able to ride.

  33. “Brands you may never have heard of have already eclipsed Harley, Suzuki or others that you may consider to be the big players. Start learning to pronounce names like Zongshen, Shineray, Lifan, Kymco and Loncin. These companies EACH claim to sell more than a million bikes a year”

    See all of those bikes on a regular basis. Most are licensed versions of the Suzuki GN125 platform. Bi numbers, but also not indespencible.

    If Loncin went under, Wu Yang would take their share immediately.

  34. No MC manufacturer is indispensable. If one were to close, fans of that marque would mourn its passing, but they’d move on. Of today’s manufacturers, HD is probably at greatest risk of failure, since it has no products beyond motorcycles and serves a niche in that market. But more likely they would be acquired.

    But it is not beyond comprehension that one of the HYKS could shut down a MC division. Three times in past 50 years BMW seriously considered shutting down the MC division, the first time in the late 50’s when the company was nearly sold to Daimler Benz, in the late 60’s, due to the firms need for cash, the success of the /5 models saved the brand and most recently in the early 90’s, when the future hinged on the success of the Oilhead powered R-bikes.

  35. Most of us remember the day when MC dealers were small/midsize shops in working class parts of town. Staffed by motorcyclists/bikers who rode and lived it. Or family members of the owners! They have turned into 2 wheel car lots where they tackle or ignore you depending on wether or not you are ready to sign the finance papers.

    Cycles Riders was a small Suzy/Trumpet shop in Orlando for years in a rough part of town. If you needed parts or a bike, that is where you went. Sometimes you had to wait, part of the experience. Dick Farmers HD was the same way.

    When CR closed last year (now “Ride Now”) there was 2 mega dealerships selling Suzy/Trump/Duc and Victory. Walk in there and a 20 something (with a pierced face and baggy clothes) shoves finance papers in your face. Blaring music and video, blah blah blah. Buncha busboys with 600s and stunt bikes. (Dude, this bikes rocks, sign here)

    HD had a policy of 1 dealer/county. Once again, this was where you went to buy/order parts or bikes. You bought from someone who actually rode. Now, within an hour drive of my house, there are 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 huge HD dealers. (3 Orlando, 1 Seminole, 3 Volusia) Go 2 hours, it easily doubles.

    I stopped at an HD dealer, the sales woman, who had dated a friend years ago, recognized me. She had lost her job selling cars, just passed her MC test and was flipping through file cards trying to learn the models. (kind of lik HDs CEO or spokes person Ann Jillian). Nice lady, I wish her well, but I ain’t dropping 20 large here!! There were hundreds of posts of guys who went to see/buy Buells and were ignored or insulted.

    Yamaha/Star has been saying the new Strato Deluxe is due out in January for 3 months, so I held out to see one. The dealers laugh in my face when I ask when it will be in. Call me in March. I will pass.

    If and when I pull the trigger on a 2009 Kawi Vulcan Voyager for the big 5-0. (down to 13k everywhere!) It will be from the salesperson who, rides, answers my questions/concerns and yes asks for the sale! I can do it online or locally.

    Things need to go back to motorcycles buying and selling bikes to each other. Ride safe, see you at bikeweek!

  36. Indian, DKW and BSA all had their turn at being the world’s largest motorcycle manufacturer.

    I doubt if many of the Kneeslider readers, as intelligent and well versed as they are, could name more than 5~8 of today’s top 20 largest motorcycle manufacturers or even name the motorcycle company with the longest production history.

    Companies come and go and rise and fall in importance.

    That’s OK. We keep riding, as we have done for the last 6500 years or so.

  37. The “old” model of local bike shops will have trouble working in the new EPA regulated world unless their are a few large companies making the technology work. These large companies will have big dealerships and make money from non-bike items such as leathers/textiles. The indies have typically survived as repair/mods shops and selling used bikes, which can be really profitable.

  38. “Most of us remember the day when MC dealers were small/midsize shops in working class parts of town. Staffed by motorcyclists/bikers who rode and lived it.”

    Those shops are still around, if that’s the experience you crave. Only the name on the sign out front has changed – it’s just not a brand from your youth anymore. But of course, specific brands are dispensable.

  39. Most seem to forget that the current slump is not due to product, Its the Financial Markets that caused this recession. There are enough choices in Bikes so that everyone can get what they need, Its the Economy, not the product, holding sales back. Only those with a strong following (HD,Triumph, Ducati?) or a corporate Sugar Daddy(Victory, Honda, BMW, Yamaha)will survive. The Chinese/Koreons will be a factor because they are protected by their Governments, and unlike in America they understand the value of industrial might.

  40. There are 3 motorcycle dealers in the town/small city that I live in. Each of them has maybe 30-40 bikes in stock at any given time. Less than a third of those are new models with 0 km’s on the clock.
    I have never been in any other kind of dealer.

  41. I visited my bike garage to drop my bike in for its annual MOT safety check and service. The guys there are really suffering and the owners of the business have not drawn salary for some time. I’d be sorry to see them go, a dealer of the old school with good mechanics. But times are hard and some firms may well go to the wall or in the case of manufacturers, require government bailouts. I’d be highly surprised if HD went bust but a government loan would be a different story. Of all the manufacturers I think Honda is probably the most secure and for a number of reasons, but that doesn’t make even Honda invulnerable.

    Incidentally, someone mentioned that if Norton made a road-going rotary bike it would sell. They did and it didn’t.

  42. I agree, and I try to buy from the local Yammie dealer. Owned by 2 brothers who shop at the bicycle shop I work at and eat in the restuarant I work at. I buy my parts there, they take care of me. They have been there for years. This mess is certainly not thier fault. I rebuild wrecks/abandoned projects as a hobby, along with making seats. I mount my own tires, lace my wheels, etc, Nothing better than local connections.

    All we can do is pray for the best and prep for the worst.

  43. They’re all disposable. Nature hates a vacuum, so something will come in and take their place should they pass.

    I work with H-D and I have a number of times discussed with some of their engineers regarding the single biggest threat to H-D (and other) motorcycle companies…it’s Makers. It’s the folks that the kneeslider showcases, folks who create their own unique vision and then broadcast it to the world, whereby anyone can “upload” the design and recreate it. Sure, you lose economy of scale, but capital expenditure, overhead, and risk fall. Via vast, distributed, open source processes, designs are refined, tailored and implemented faster and at lower cost than can ever be done through top-down product development.

    Maker technology is evolving rapidly, desktop milling machines, FDM and other “prototyping” technologies, selective laser deposition, electronic circuits that are printed and encapsulated with an inkjet printer…

    H-D could well become a name, a brand, who publishes information that others pay to use…I could see them functioning in the same sense as Apple and the iPhone, whereby you “lease” the idea, if not the execution, of the H-D lifestyle. You pay to download specific “Apps” (customization), pay an ongoing monthly service fee to wear the badge “H-D”…sounds crazy, but many of H-D’s customers essentially did this very thing…

  44. bblix, Send me some of whatever your Smoking, The trend is for less ability to manufacture on a small scale, Not more. Small Builders can not afford to meet the regulatory costs of manufacturing, let alone the machinery costs.

  45. No company is indispensable. If they go under a new will rise in its place (usually made up of expatriates from the dead company).
    My motorcycles have all been orphaned by the dealers. So as far as my example of their brands, they did go out of business. I ride them till I get the idea I want something else and then I sell them and buy something else.
    Good luck and ride safe.

  46. Motorcycle companies dying is critical to discovering what today’s market wants. We will miss them, even HOG if it goes 🙂 Buell was close but missed the mark or aimed higher than their niche could support.

    KTM is willing to do things differently and customers reward them with sales.

    I remember a post on kneeslider about a Derbi that was basically a motorized mountainbike. Somewhere close is a niche waiting to happen. It will probably be found by an electric mc company once batteries trim down.

    Honestly wish one of the big four would get more adventurous and get off the McSportbike model. Mix it up, explore what the niche markets want.

  47. BMW – I have really been a fan of this manufacturer but it’s getting so expensive to own my 14 year old R1100RS I am thinking about a brand change; ie Suzuki DL 650. A cheap work horse. I want to ride not have my wallet drained every time I walk into the dealer for a part.

  48. Tin Man 2,

    The small builder is YOU! or me or a neighbor building a motorcycle for one person (themselves). Microscale manufacturing is in its infancy and I see the seeds of it everywhere. You cannot see it not looking at the topic head-on, in the usual places.

    I’m not sure what expensive machinery you’re referring to…that’s old school big manufacturing…the equipment I’m referring to follows the same trend as consumer electronics wrt pricing…price drops by 1/2 every two years.

    As for regulatory issues, it is entirely possible to buy off-the-shelf, certified components (lighting and other regulated elements). If you buy a light module that is certified and install it in a new housing, it’s still a certified light.

    As for the ability of small scale manufacturers being more or less successful than large ones…really? It was all the really really big banks and manufacturers who needed the bailout money…

  49. @bblix I agree savvy bike builders in 20 yrs will be taking advantage manufacturing techniques guys with wrenches and a welder can only dream of now. Nano tech plus massive computing power is going to turn manufacturing on its head by decentralizing the production of many things. In this day and age I am beginning to believe the only viable way to start a business is to be micro and to stay micro just to shield yourself from massive government overhead and regulation. The guy that can keep from getting run over by the government and feed his family is the new entrepreneur in this guilted age, pun intended. I see micro manufacturers banding together in loose confederacies to manufacture larger items and individually market them.

  50. no motorcycle mfr is too big to fail. The first I hope to see fail is HD. I don’t know how they managed to stay in business making such outdated, poor performing junk for as many years as they have. I’m surprised they have not been sued into bankruptcy for they crappy brakes.

  51. I do believe in “survival of the fittest”, but I also believe that “competition improves the breed”. Fewer motorcycle companies means complacency for the survivors and reduced choices for the enthusiast. I want to see as many motorcycle companies as possible out there. I don’t care if they are resurrected old marques or brand new, big or small. It’s all good.

  52. I read that during the dawn of motorcycling there were 200 mfgs involved the USA alone. Two coments here:

    A whole lot of them were dispensible.

    A whole lot of them must’ve been practicing micro-manufacturing (Industrial-age style). I love the concept, but I doubt that it guarantees food on the table at night. We all know about Glen Curtis producing motorcycles and “jobber” engines in a small wooden shop using only a lathe and a drill-press. He found another emerging industry – then went BIG. Otherwise he’d be like any of the other 200 passionate, talented and brave “doers” – anonymous.

  53. @bcuznca Has someone forced you to buy a Harley? Have you any investment in Harley that you have lost and now want everyone to fail? Are you just that pathetic? What has this independent publicly owned business done to you?

  54. Indispensable? I guess it depends on what one means by that. Strictly speaking, from an economic/industry standpoint, I would say no, no company is indispensable. On the other hand, there’s nothing out there today, at least not on the mass market, that could replace, say, a Royal Enfield 750 Interceptor, or a Vincent Black Lightning, or a BSA Gold Star or, for that matter, one of the original, bare-bones Gold Wings. (I knew a guy who made a rather nice cafe racer out of one, believe it or not.) It’s unlikely that we shall see anything quite like a Buell again, and perhaps that’s one of the reasons why Buell, as a company making motorcycles, is no more. I know it’s all highly subjective, but I will take a basic Sportster over a Buell any day, because I feel I can do more with it to make it my own, and it’s more versatile. It’s the same reason I once took a Honda CB750K over, say, the original Suzuki Katana or a Honda Interceptor. Buell never quite appealed to enough people. If Harley saw the numbers, they would certainly have kept it going. (And when Erik Buell had an Austrian company build his new engine, rather than Harley, I saw the writing on the wall.) Money is tight, and the average motorcycle owner (myself included) is starting to go gray. What we need are smaller, less expensive, more all-around or standard style bikes that can revitalize the market and attract younger riders who cannot afford a bike costing ten grand or more. Remember what happened when Honda first brought the Cub to the US?aken

  55. @Paulinator you are correct but don’t forget the times Curtis lived in where the life force of industry wasn’t being sucked out of a venture before it could be full born. The start up of any business now that has more than ten employees is really tough. The cost for 25 or more employees is astronomical and the entrepreneur essentially sells his company for start up funds. I think it is fundamentally incorrect to call the 200 hundred companies that didn’t reach the size of Harley as failures. The may have been huge successes to the owners who made money from them. Just because a company or venture is started it does not have to last into perpetuity to prove its success. I am sure some were terrible failures to the owners, some may have been follies for their own amusement and some may have served their purpose and like Curtis they may have moved on to other more profitable ventures. A paragraph or footnote on a history page does not determine if your business or life was successful.

  56. The small “makers” will still need companies like S&S to make legal engine/exhaust combos. They may get away with it now because (unlike HD) they are too small to bother going after. If small makers made the majority of the bikes then the Feds would need to change the way the laws are enforced. The other problem the small guys have is price. People rave when a little guy makes a bike for $18K and complain when HD does it. Handmade or not, MCs have to be affordable and so far the small makers have struggled with that.

  57. I’m sure you understand that we have rapid 3D prototyping right now and the very same technology can also be used to make the finished parts out of what ever material is needed . You will not buy an engine from S&S you will license the software to make it or you might decide to build your bike around a SteveD motor because he sat down and designed and proved a better engine and sells the license to use it. His micro business puts really good food on the table and no union fee’s. Paulinator he really likes SteveD motors, but frames are his thing nobody can make a frame like his and he designs frames for SteveD motors. Paulinator frames are really popular and his software goes out the door while he is on that round the world ride. What bblix and I am trying to explain is this technology is very expensive right now it will be cheaper every day, it will one day be comparable to a snap on roll around full of snap on tools and a good PC. SteveD mentioned “the Feds would need to change the way the laws are enforced” I beg to differ, at this point, the government still works for us. We are not yet a totalitarian state. If we allow laws that enslave us well shame on US.

  58. David/Cigarrz, please understand that I believe many of the artizans had very rewarding endevours, if not lasting prosperity or notoriety.

    I am totally intrigued by the concept of micro-industry as opposed to cottage industry. 100 years ago small shops could operate on the vanguard of technology with reasonable capital investment and some inherent security from knock-offs. Trade secrets in the form of materials specifications or processes were often protection enough from successful immitation. If not, the immitator had at least as much manual work to perform in duplicating the original effort. Today we have lightning-speed data transmission, desk-top 3D printers and small xyz routers. The new reality is that the effort is front-loaded in the concept development and design phase. Production is digital. How can we profit from developing technology before our work is pirated and dumped back into our painfully cultivated market? Mechanical patents take 2 to 3 years and represent a 97% probability of financial loss.

    Paul, maybe you could dedicate a column to the topic of IP development and maintenance? I think it is relavent in many ways – Hossack, the Chinese democracy, H-D murchandising proudly made in Pakistan, etc, etc, etc.

  59. well, both really.

    of course, it’s tragic to lose a brand, especially innovators like Buell; love em, or not.

    but, at the same time, that’s the nature of things. nothing lasts forever, regardless of the circumstances that perpetuate, or ultimately destroy them.

    it’s a shame and a great loss, but it is what it is. we’ll move on, and the industry will move on.

    and you know, Erik isn’t dead or anything…he’s just back to his roots making stuff that’s going to blow us always once again.

    you never know, maybe this was exactly what needed to happen to realize the ultimate potential of his talent.

    if so, then it could just be the best thing that could have happened! i hope so.

  60. MZ 1000 sf
    and I really wanted one, it was the only MZ that made sense to buy new. Unfortunately MZ buyers are second hand buyers so the company went buy buy. |t is still the brand that I miss most and I’m a Brit.

  61. The Idea that available “computerized blue prints”will have the average person manufacturing their own engines is absurd. You can have class rooms full of designers churning out all the designs you want, Its the manufactures who make it happen. If we all had computerized milling machines in our garages there would still be the Metalurgy to consider. Computer Design is not a substitute for actaully making something, Its just a Tool like any other. Yes you can buy any number of Kit Bikes, with S+s engines Baker transmissions and somebody elses frame, But with the regulatory controls this is getting harder everyday.

  62. Tin Man 2 it is being done right now, metallurgy is infinitely controllable when you are building a part at the molecular level It certainly is not within the realm of cost effective at this point but it is like computers in the 70’s compared to now. The cost of 2 terrabit of memory in the 70’s was not even conceivable now its 149.00 plus shipping. This technology is no different it will be cheap at some point. Manufacturing will be easy, as Paulinator points out intellectual property and the protection of it is going to be the challenge.

  63. The “average person” has been making engines of their own design for over 100 years without computers. Digital manufacturing is here and it is making it easier for anyone with a dream to put it on the road. I must agree with a lot of the posts regarding the ‘makers’ being the next chapter. Maybe this is the way for the 1st and 2nd world countries to get back in the transportation design game. Our countries put the world on wheels. We can do it again. Bigger isn’t always better.

  64. Thats crazy, if you tried to invent the aspirin or the airplane in todays world the federal, local, state, ctiy, county government, liabilty lawyers and a few folks you never heard of would would come crashing down on your world. They have truly become our enemy and exist only to generate more revenue so they can continuw to grow. I intentionaly keep my company small for this reason.

    Someone ask a boat builder how he knew when the boat was done. He said he wieghs the boat and all the paperwork he needs to fill out for the government. When they weigh the same, the boat is done.

  65. “If you tried to invent the aspirin or the airplane in todays world the federal, local, state, ctiy, county government, liabilty lawyers and a few folks you never heard of would would come crashing down on your world.”

    The phrase “only in America” may apply here. Much of the world actually doesn’t set up systems that stifle innovation and experience from a nation of 308 million or so may not translate to the world’s other 6.5 billion inhabitants. I know that some of them futz around improving motorcycles and inventing new things without worrying too much about federal, local, state, ctiy, county government and liabilty lawyers – let alone folks they never heard of.

  66. Well its not to late to put the constitution and voter responsibility back into play and I will say no more on that subject in this forum.

  67. I didn’t read all the comments, so this may have been addressed. If HD were to go out of business a lot of the faithful would stop riding. I’m not talking about the motorcyclists that ride HD but the followers of the trend and some of the reentry riders, and there are a lot of them.
    I personally have some brand loyalty to BMW, but I have three other Japanese marques in my garage.just for fun.

  68. Harley could be TGTF. Harley-Davidson’s subprime loan division should declare itself a bank holding company — you know the factory financing that made all those 7 year, 22 percent loans to the wannabees. Then the Motor Company could claim $100 billion in bailouts and give everyone who works there a $50 million bonus.

  69. Making a motorcycle is the easy part it’s getting it approved that is the challenge. Jesse James was fined a few hundred grand because the 50 or so bikes he sold were not approved by CARB. This was almost 1/5 of what they felt he owed them. I’m surprised the EPA didn’t jump on the band wagon and fine him too for not having EPA approval. If a small motorcycle company wanted to build motorcycles they’d have to weigh the costs of compliance with regulation vs the fines associated with not doing so. I think Jesse James came out ahead on that one.

    Until we figure out how to make compliance easier and more affordable for anyone other than just the super rich the large manufacturers and wealthy entrepreneurs are going to be the only ones producing motorcycles.

    -todd

  70. John S, So which is it, The RUBs that used their home equity to buy Harleys. Or the 7Yr 22% Wana Bes that made Harley the number 1 bike maker in its market?? When you Grow Up you may want a Harley Cruiser to relax on, Or will you want a cheap imitation?

  71. I don’t know, there is a Harley dealer on every other corner, maybe if they opened one on every corner it would help. Smokin time to buy, sales are down, %40-50 across the board. BMW and Triumph are holding up well enough. You can buy most cruiser at %30 off retail or more. Just be willing to walk away and they will take your offer.

    I do not know a single rider who would buy a Chinese or Korean MC, they will just buy less bikes or wait and save longer for the bike they want. As soon as we get a government that is for the people, not against, I will buy a new bike. Right now the country is in survival mode.

  72. The comments about micro manufacturing are correct. This is a difficult concept to truly relay to other people as it’s really a kind of ‘open source’ style of doing things, that doesn’t come naturally to people used to existing models of business. The IT industry has been doing this for years. The difference is that the IT world operates with ‘electrons in the garage’ versus ‘steel in the garage’. IT has been able to operate this way because of low costs. As the ‘steel in the garage’ machinery gets cheaper, ‘open source’ becomes viable for other industries. What your probably not seeing Tin Man 2 is that it’s already here, but hasn’t registered in the mainstream early radar. People go to the local dealer for parts, but what if your neighbour could make the part under license from his CNC machine from steel bought from a registered foundry? Take a look at the http://www.instructables.com/ site; you can find plans on how to build your own CNC machine from Home Depot. You can use Google Sketch Up to do design, and import into CNC machines. Take a look at some of the models on Google already. Not sure if you could build a whole bike but at the rate technology evolves you won’t have to wait long for change.

    Cross your fingers that ‘micro’ takes off before the big guys do something about it. You can forget about outsourcing to China if Bob your neighbour will buy the license to make it for the neighbourhood.

    Engines are not a problem either, as was already stated, guys like S&S have the know how and all they have to do is provide the experience to improve the design as a service; or sell a module that is pre-approved by the EPA. That, and with computer modelling and an ability to rapidly produce cheap prototypes building a compliant engine becomes a University science project. Once the ‘code is cracked’ it becomes repeatable. Don’t forget we’re probably all going electric at some time anyways and this significantly reduces the challenges of producing new engines.

    50-100 years ago you could use the tools at hand to reach the bar required to bring a product to market from your garage; today that ability is missing from the entrepreneur. The advancements we are seeing in technology and tools will enable the entrepreneur to reach that bar again.

    If you know the history of companies like Vincent or Brough Superior they were ‘high tech’ companies for their day. Regulations are not real barrier they just raise the bar (a lot). Barriers can be overcome if the price to overcome them is affordable.

    I encourage you to read on the differences on civil engineering and software engineering from a design perspective and where the costs are.

    ‘Micro’ sounds a lot like software development where the construction is cheap but the design is expensive. Civil is the other way around, design is cheap compared to the cost of construction.

    One existing example I can think of is RC foam airplanes. There are people making plans in Sketchup, posting them on sites in PDF format that you can print out as a template for $10, that you use to cut out the airplane from foam bought from Home Depot. Also,there are foam distribution/manufacturing companies that offer laser cutting services for any PDFs you send them, or are licensed to use the PDFs to sell a precut kit. The latter is the most poignant. It’s not a motorcycle but it clearly shows the concept is alive, well and growing.

    There is a real movement to micro and your going to get a perfect storm sometime at some point. Actuall, Wired magazine for Feb 2010 has the topic on the front page, grab a copy to get a good intro.

  73. I’ve posted this on another thread already, but it’s relevant here, too. Today’s motorcycle manufacturers are dispensable because they’re TOO worried about what people WANT. I’m not too proud to admit that I don’t always WANT the things I NEED. The problem is not the manufacturers, it’s the customers. Until we as motorcyclists realize that we don’t NEED a $20,000 \cruiser\ (I spit the word) or a sportbike with more performance capabilities than we will EVER be able to use on the street, manufacturers won’t stop making them, because that’s what we WANT. And what we want changes rapidly, so when trends change, manufacturers go away because they can’t change as fast.

  74. Fireworks, what is stopping imitators from piggy-backing on innovation and making the business model unprofitable (unworkable) for the actual innovator? Have you ever seen a Meyers Manx? How would you know? There were at least 75 ilegitamate copies! I use that example because each unit Mr. Meyers sold was effectively a finished plug for a new set of pirated molds. In the new era of micro-industry imitators will actually have it much easier.

  75. Paulinator,

    Bruce Meyers did not copyright his design until the cat was out of the bag. Every partime boatbuilder with a choppergun was building dunebggies bodies by then. Old beetles were $50. I have owned original Meyers Manx buggies and copies. (I am in the Manx registry), And lets face it, you cannot sue everyone.

    Dodge just sued a local highschool becuase the ram logo from the football team resembled thier truck logo. They won, but it got lots of bad press. Chrysler does not need bad press at this time!

    All you can do is inovate before you get copied. In the bicycle business when you build a new design in China they build one for you, one for them and one for the factory next door. Everything is copied within a year. The best selling Japanese cruiser are the ones that look most like HDs. Roadking debuts in 1996, sells great. Roadstar comes out in 1999. Streetglide has been a sales leader for 5 years, look at the “new” Victorys and Stratoliners. Things that make you go hmmm.

  77. Fireworks, There is no way a neighbor with a CNC can or will be cost competitive with a mass produced product. Just as there will never be enough Garage builders to supply bikes to meet the demands of even this distressed market. Foam R/C Airplanes are not in the same league in complexity, cost, or skill as building a complete Bike. Most kits sold are NEVER completed, let alone kits that require the builder to make the parts for a running Bike. The Designers have always undervalued the Manufactures, while the Builders(manufactures)have contempt for untested Designs. This Story is as old as time,and will not change in our lifetime.

  79. Tin Man 2
    This is a paradigm shift that is hard to comprehend even for the people directly involved. I am certainly not trying to bust your ass or give you a hard time and I am certainly not a prophet but the dynamics of this a mind boggling. This will at some point be building things out of raw atoms. The whole concept of manufacturing as we know it now will not exist. And I expect to see the beginnings in my life time and I’m retired. The raw material foam or titanium is irrelevant and complexity is only a matter of computing power. The “manufacturing” unit will be complicated and expensive to begin with but will be as common as the microwave at some point in the future. The technology already exist. The huge social paradigm of decentralized manufacturing if it will even be called that is going to be the equivalent of all the “revolutions ” squared. Everyone’s ideas will constitute intellectual property that can be built into a finished product. Protecting your “property” and retailing and “idea” is not something society is even remotely prepared to deal with. Million of pages of “laws” and “regulations” will become irrelevant.

  80. Nothing lasts forever except cockroaches and George Clooney’s bachelor status. So motorcycle companies are destined to fail in the future, and no company is “too large to fail.” Perhaps if the big 4 fail, they’ll be replaced by upstarts like Fischer and Vyrus.

    I’d be especially upset if Yamaha died, though, because that would put the prices of used GTS1000s through the roof. That bike is my dream bike. But who knows which companies will still be alive ten years down the road. My buddy’s brother works as a supervisor at an Illinois Ducati service shop, and he was given two options: be laid off or have his salary cut….. in half.

  81. When society is so obsessed with blame and suing each other for the most minor incident, its no wonder motorcycle manufacturing is declining and the growing number of lawyers are like a plague on society. Starting any small manufacturing business is the equivalent of betting your life savings on being able to walk through a mine field and come out the other side intact. An almost impossible task. Not long ago a small oil leak or the occasional mechanical fault would be just part and parcel of owning a vehicle, annoying but no major issue. Nowadays people would be suing the manufacturers for selling an unsafe vehicle, blaming everything from loss of income, stress counselling fees, family breakdown, medication and loss of mobility. It’s a sad reflection on society today, but as the old saying goes, “we reap what we sow”.

  82. Zippy, My VW cost $140 when I was 16. I built a super light tube-frame mud buggy but I thought the glass street buggies were really cool, too. Glory days!

    I love this site. It gets me thinking…and I’m thinking that micro industry will become a force – but it might be BAD unless IP laws and policies are re-written to address it.

  83. Wow. Every company can be at risk right now no matter who they are. HD won’t be gone if for no other reason than HOG.No other company has that type of following. I will never buy another new motorcycle for myself as I like to be creative with the aftermarket or build something dicarded by someone else. I also like low tech because even later lowtech became pretty advanced, reliable, and easy to understand through the 90’s. I hope for the industry there aren’t alot of me out there. As for all the companies-beware- the Chinese are the next Japan as soon as someone figures out how to create the correct dealer network and support. Only then will we really see.

  84. I agree that the legal environment for small-timers definitely needs to change (at least in the U.S.). But the overwhelming advantage that a micro industry has is its ability to make and implement design changes quickly. Maybe a micro entrepreneur won’t bother with a patent. If his design gets copied by a bigger company that can make them faster and cheaper, he can make a new one for way less than it would cost to fight them in court.

  85. I am seeing solid running used bikes for 2k all day long on Craigs. You a bike that was 12-20K new 3-5 years old, low miles for about 1/2 the price. Bring cash and low ball. You can’t fight the market. Most have $1000s in upgrades. Looking for a used chopper, name your price. $30,000 bikes for $9k in da Cycletrader.

    Personally, I don’t like ABS or FI, simple, easy to fix and service works for me. Right now value is king. HD will survive, albiet much smaller and more dedicated to the core. This Ann Jillen, going for the Oprah crowd is the stupidist thing I have ever seen. Build bikes for bikers, motorcycles for motorcyclists, we know who is who. We will seek you out. If I want a Harley, Duc or Trumpet, that is what I will buy. I remember the UJM era. Right now the Japs are spinning, they don’t know who to copy! They are discounting hard. I see lots of new bikes over $4000 off!

    Victory/Indian they were feeding off the fringe. I bet they drop first. Maybe some small Euros next. Strange times my friends. Great time to buy, but will the prices drop again next week!

  86. This thread and talk of micromanf reminds me of the TV show “Connections” for some reason, how it was a lot easier to decode history than code/predict the future. And it got some of my own connections sparking (agian). I have had the good fortune to have had the Britten, the oval-pistoned Honda 500 GP bike, the Czysz C1 and the Dreer Norton cross my path on the track, as well as many other similar efforts of my own and others creation cross my path.

    Key to the new paradigm offered is “cracking the code”; a lot easier said than done. In my experience, the complex dynamics of high performance motorcycle/rider combination still defies comeplete codification, the analog content will not go away. Maybe its a single-track version of the Heisenberg Principle: the more a performance bike is transformed to code the harder it becomes to get that last “bit” right, because it can’t be finished with ones & zeros. I learned this the hard way building invention-level 6-axis high speed/high accuracy robots (while I was building up my Yosh-spec 750). There are some systems that just work better when analog vs. digital. It eliminates sets of boundries that are required when going all-digital. Going all-digital in the 3D/4D world demands definition of boundry constraints that grow at 3rd power, and addressing those cubic boundry constraints becomes the limit to growth/improvement.

    It came up again building 36-beam laser reticle writers; we couldn’t codify to the photon level (well, we did in simulations, now which sim & calibration run do you believe?) If that monster couldn’t do it, then the garage-guy will not be able to compete even with terabyte PC power. Even with a world of garage-guys.

    Mohr’s Law may apply to computing power & IT (up to a point), but performance bikes do not get 10X faster every 18 months like PC’s. Having said that, one of my fav mantras is “every limit presupposes something beyond it.”

    The 4-dimensional world of motorcycling continues to resist final codification and that’s part of why it remains so intruiging!

  87. @Tin Man 2 That’s only true if it is cheaper to mass produce, or mass production actually fulfills the need. If you had an idea for something, and you had access to a CNC machine cheap, and your buddies at the local club thought your idea was great and would pay to make the part, your telling me that you would tell them ‘sorry, if I can’t make it in China I don’t make it’ or would you just make the part and take the money?
    Will you become the next Honda like this? Obviously no. But that isn’t the point. The point is that you would have the ability to take your vision to market. After that all your dealing with is scale (which is all that mass production is) and that’s only if what your selling is intended to be mass market. How many Bugatti Veyron’s ior Tesla’s have they made? If (big if in this case) you had a vision that 1 person, for $1 Million (!) would pay you for, and you could build it in the garage would you do it? Can you do it now? No, because you don’t have the equipment. But what if you did?

    I didn’t reference foam airplanes as a comparison against anything. It is an example of the concept only. But it works because the cost is very low compared the price it is needed to sell at to make it available and profitable. Simply put, take cost out of the equation. If someone rolled up with a semi full of high tech manufacturing equipment and said ‘no charge’ and left, and you had an idea or just wanted to mess around what would you do? Obviously, there is going to be a price, but what if you could afford it? Affordability is only a measurement of price to how much the average person can spend. Either you need lots of cash, or the product hasn’t be priced right. It’s the price that is going to drop for this type of equipment. It’s simply the way technology works. When blu ray players came out they were over $1000, today they are a couple of hundred, and they sell no problem; because they are affordable. This style of production has been in use for a while but only for prototyping. 3D printers are an example. There is a version of AutoCad that can simulate a wind tunnel. You can literally test out any airflow test you want on your home PC. It’s simply a matter of time. That said, there is also a strong change that the price point will stabilize at the ‘Pro’ level and not the consumer level. But I doubt the costs will be greater than what it costs to currently open a mom and pop.

  88. @AI Your right, it’s not possible completely suck in the real world into a computer and trust the computer 100%. But the deficiencies are only deficiencies if they matter. In your example, you couldn’t complete your objectives using a purely digital perspective.
    However I seriously doubt the average person will even consider doing what you did.

    I think of how cool it would be to CAD some cool contemporary furniture and get it upholstered at the local shop, or design some bunk beds for the kids, or make some rear sets that are custom to how I ride specifically. I’d probably even take a shot a rims, or forks etc. Even if you wanted to take this approach into the small business as a ‘custom’ shop would these deficiencies prevent you from creating a bike _worse_ than if you did it all by hand? I doubt it. For racing or pushing the envelope your 100% right, but I think the demand that this aligns with is for standard/cruiser style bikes. But even in racing there are bound to be more privateer teams started as this grows.

  89. Fireworks, This is just a discussion, nothing personal.Ok?? This reminds me of 20 Yrs ago when a friend was trying to get me to invest in an online shopping service, According to him retailers would all be replaced by online retailers, Meijers, K Mart and Target would all be Memories. You can see where this is going! People get overwhelmed by their own enthusism, Blinded by the possibilitys not the reality… The reality is that if M/C design stopped today, it would not matter at all. Our current designs are so much ahead of our ability to use them that it simply doesnt matter. Im sorry but Marketing is the Key, not design… Not in racing of course, but racing is also moving more to spec classes to control costs. The sad thing is, in the modern world Design and Engineering will end up out sourced to teams of low paid computer wizards in 3rd world countrys,much like X-Ray techs are now. The World is changing all right, but it never goes in the direction we can forsee.

  90. David/cigarrz and Fireworks, thanks for doing so much heavy lifting here. I’m glad to see I’m not the only one thinking along the same lines.

    Tinman2, here’s something to think about: Give a huge corporation right now a 1 years to go grow a human being (something tremendously more complex than a motorcycle). Well, they couldn’t do it.

    Give me a couple teenagers, 9 months and 20 minutes later you’d have something that was ready to put into the marketplace.

    Obviously I’m not saying they’re the same thing, rather showing that you can create complex systems with simple tools when everything is in place to support it.

    The barrier in the future will not be access to the tools, but the creativity and the impetus to put ideas out into the world. We will judge our success and failure not in the size of our companies, but in the demand we create. YouTube is a perfect example, where success is measured not in monetary terms, but in hits generated.

    Not everyone will be a Maker of all things. At some level, we are all Makers and Consumers. Some might focus more of their energies making furniture, for fireworks above, and exchange some of this energy for food produced by Makers focusing their energies in growing it.

    You will see more creative collectives, ad hoc organizations that merge ideas and creative energies for a time, that then dissipate when they no longer makes sense. This happens all the time in the art world. Much of our problem as a society is that we cling to institutions (too big to fail) not recognizing that at some point some things should fail, or that at some point a large company just no longer makes sense and it should just dissolve.

  91. @ Tin Man 2 Sorry, my thoughts didn’t come out correctly in my writing. I’ve no animosity towards you or others. I reread my post and my phrasing is off. Please accept my apology. I wasn’t implying that you have ‘vision’ issues, what I meant was that my example is highly improbable. Sorry about. If nothing else it’s further proof of how the pen can be mightier than the sword. Until you get stuck with one anyways…

  93. Some of ya’ll have been watching too much Star Trek…

    I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but the days of molecular replicators and matter transporters are a long way off in practice, even though they may exist as theory.

    I am old enough to remember Popular Science articles back in the ’50’s and ’60’s that extolled “cheap” energy, such as atomic power, that would eliminate or greatly reduce energy and transportation cost. Hasn’t happened yet, even though theoretically possible. And yeah, I have heard of the 200 mpg “carburetor” all my life and how it has been repressed by the oil companies, etc., ad nauseum…

    Fact is, the wheels of progress do not turn that fast, for whatever reason. I mean, come on, we were supposed to have Mars and Moon colonies by now…

    Would be nice if I could go over to the replicator (or even down the street) and say “440 Chrysler wedge, 11:1 compression ratio, xxx cam, 550 hp, etc.” and have it materialize on the platform. Right now we will have to be content with ordering said engine (or bike) over Ebay or such…

    “Do not trust in this technological terror you have created”……..Darth Vader

  94. @Boog,

    No doubt, most of us wouldn’t make it in a world dominated by some of the technologies we speak about, unless we as a culture make decisions about what the boundaries.

    It is not just that things are changing, but the pace of change is changing too and it is doing so in an exponential fashion, rather than a linear one. If we can skirt wholesale disaster (widespread war, for example) we are bound to see as many radical changes in our lives in the next 20 years as we did in the previous 100.

    An example of how things have changed: I can’t imagine living without Google, and yet I am well old enough to remember a world before it (I was in my 30’s when it first hit the scene). My whole way of thinking and working has been transformed.

    Many might say that Google was not a significant change, but I would argue for those people to stop using Google (or any other search engine) and see how they fare. Our take on what is normal shifts, so our perception of change changes along with everything else. What this means, essentially, is that we are less likely to be surprised by the changes we see, because the changes are nearly always incremental. It’s just that the spacing between those changes grows smaller. We will learn to adapt.

    I don’t see cataclysmic, earthquake or tsunami-like changes where one day we wake up and suddenly the world in entirely different (though, that could happen and if it did so it wouldn’t be to anyone’s benefit).

    I think some folks here are suggesting that we shouldn’t be too surprised if things look and work different in the future, that some of the models of how we view the workings of the world may shift.

  95. The notion of a 200 mpg bolt-on carburator is rediculous. The notion of a 200 mpg ICE driven car is actually reasonable – batteries not required. The problem is that the later concept has already been tainted by the “hoax”.

  96. Fireworks, I was worried that I offended you, not the other way around!! I find these discussions Exciting, and enjoy thinking about the Future. Best Wishes,TM2.

  97. @ Boog:

    I totally get your point, but your atomic power and moon/Mars colony examples are ‘progress’ held back by people, not flaws or gaps in the technology or the theory behind it.

    I don’t mean this in a conspiracy theory way, just that nobody in the ’70s could figure out a way to make a buck off of Moonbase Alpha and the hippies convinced enough people that just being in the same country as a reactor would inevitably lead to 10,000 years of glowing mutant grandchildren.

    Sometimes, like valve springs or belt drive or electric cars, it’s a matter of waiting for materials science to catch up with the needs. Or, like rear suspension or belt drive or electric cars, an idea just needs to have a little patina on it before it gets mass-implementation as a ‘brand new’ idea. Sometimes you just need to wait for the old paradigm to die.

  98. All of nature builds from the bottom up we build from the top down. If for example you build a wheel out of billet aluminum you start with 200 or 300 lb of raw material to end up with a finished product of 30 lb to build from the bottom up we use deposition and use 30lb of material, when molecular size deposition becomes quick, easy and affordable you surely will be able to get the pieces for your 440 wedge with some assembly required. There are many in between steps before we are doing that in our garage, but just like my apprenticeship on a Bridgeport to eventually CADCAM multi axis machining it is inevitable this paradigm shift will happen. This will be the ultimate lean manufacturing all the metrics are driving its development.

  99. My, how the motorcycling world is degenerating into a world of computer speak, political and technical gobbeldey gook, and computer created mock ups that never see the light of day. Sounds like some people are already living in thier own little cyber world with the Jetsons. Call me old fashioned, but I still get my enjoyment from riding a nice basic motorcycle through our, sad but true, fast diminishing natural environment. With all the people burning the midnight oil and using all that energy to live in cyber world,things can only get worse.

  100. @coho

    You are exactly right. We have had the technology to do many useful things for some time now but, alas, things seem to be driven by money and politicians. I cannot understand the attitude of “why are we spending this money to bring back a few rocks from the Moon?”. I guess we would never have expanded out to the west coast if this way of thinking had prevailed back in the 1800’s. It is indeed “people” that have held back progress…

  101. @Joe How exactly so you think that the fine piece of engineering your riding was designed and by who?

  102. @Joe

    I know for a fact that there are many a H-D motorcycles that only make it as far as the computer rendering stage, then a few more that only go as far as mock-ups…There’s loads of “computer speak, political and technical gobbeldey gook” that goes on to get any design into production.

  103. “…..A bad actor who struts and frets his hour apon the stage and then is heard no more. A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signafying nothing.”
    Wm. S.

  104. I should preface this with the fact that a whole lot of people will be upset with my opinion, but I feel it should at least be food for thought. Going totally against the American grain, I think HD could be the most likely candidate to either scale back significantly or drop out for a while. This is based on its pricing, its sometimes reluctance to listen to its clientele, and its tremendous variety of models. Everyone knows a 1200 cc Sportster name, but all those other options with five and six initials just discourage newbies from even entering the store. In addition, there is a noticeable change, to a rather “elitist” demeanor and atmosphere in most HD storefronts. In some stores I have been in, you would think you had just entered some ta ta store on Rodeo Drive.
    HD seems to be having some problems lately, as seen in the news and the genre publications. Yes, it is an American icon; yes, almost all of us would like to own one; and yes, some models can be head turners. But this company that reinvented itself ten or so years ago seems to feel it has become the Ferrari of bikes. Unless it can reduce its pricing, it will continue to see competitive inroads from Asian and European bikes.