What is the future for motorcycles and motorcycling? I imagine this question gets tossed around on occasion in the boardrooms and design studios of motorcycle companies around the world, but I wonder how they answer it.
Technology Life Cycles
Technology has a life cycle from invention to maturity and finally supersedence by something else. Motorcycles were invented back when the internal combustion engine was young and being attached to wheeled vehicles of all sorts. Since that time, they have progressed to the point where usable performance has reached the upper limits of practicality and each model year brings new styling and incremental changes in engineering. Is there a forward leap coming anytime soon?
Fuel Cells or Electric Power?
One possible direction is shown by the ENV fuel cell motorcycle we’ve covered here before, and the many electric powered motorcycles being built by hobbyists and small companies show more variations along the path of alternate power. While more conventional motorcycles are beginning the introduction of automatic transmissions, electric motorcycles are single speed from the start with RPM and torque available in almost unlimited quantities. Electric power certainly seems like a high probability in future motorcycles and cars as well.
The Auto World
Actually, looking at the automotive world you see a big shift toward more and more electrical and electronic circuitry, onboard computers controlling the operation of the engine are now used to control almost everything else from the brakes for ABS and traction control, to airbag deployment, to the suspension for variable damping, it’s gradually making its way to actual decisions in the driving process, applying brakes when the driver is too slow to react in an emergency, helping with navigation, climate control, the list is long and growing. There is also electric power steering and the emergence of electric brakes and both full electric power and hybrid electric power. Comparatively speaking, motorcycles, with some exceptions, are from an age long ago.
Many of us who enjoy riding and working on motorcycles like the technology where it is and has been. The sound and throb of a big V-twin or the whine of an inline 4 sounds right and the mechanical appearance strikes a chord in our brain but that technology is getting old. Vinyl records, no matter how good your turntable, are no match for current CDs and DVDs.
Increasing Rate of Technical Change
The rate of technological change is increasing rapidly and motorcycles in some ways are almost frozen in time. It’s common to hear sport bike riders taking shots at Harley Davidson as using ancient technology but I have a hunch you’ll be able to say the same thing about current sport bikes before very long.
From a purely practical standpoint, motorcycles have their shortcomings, they are far more recreational than utilitarian so serving the recreational rider from whatever vantage point a company chooses to stake out is a business decision and each one is just as sound as the rest. Whether you want to appeal to the classic or vintage crowd, the touring riders, choppers and custom cruisers or racer wannabes, it’s a valid choice, but if something comes along that is appreciably or dramatically better than current motorcycles, any one of those segments could disappear overnight or change itself and demand the new version of things, a thought that has to cause a bit of heartburn in a few of those boardrooms, some much more than others.
As many of the technologies we have been using over the years are rapidly replaced, can we expect any other area to somehow sit still with some sort of immunity? I have an old Dual 1218 turntable gathering dust on a shelf in the basement next to a Pioneer 727 receiver and a Panasonic cassette deck. There isn’t anything wrong with them except they became obsolete long ago. The VCR in my living room hasn’t been used for at least a year, maybe more, why it’s still there I’m not sure. You probably have your own selection of old and out of date technology, still functional but not up to current standards of performance. If a fast, light electric motorcycle comes along, or some similar technological advance appears, will today’s motorcycles stand a chance? It’s interesting to think about.
Mark Savory says
I think you will still see the basic motorcycle as a hub of the transportation network for a long time to come. Mostly due to the cheap cost of manufacture, licensing, parking and training to use — and the need as basic transportation in 3rd world countries.
The application of hydrogen fuel cells into a motorcycle? I’m sure it would be a HAZMAT nightmare to make safe in case of an accident.
Battery / electrical powered? Battery technology hasn’t caught up with the other advances in electrical componentry. When it does, I’m sure you will see more of them on the road. I’ll buy one then!
3-wheelers? I still keep waiting for the 3-wheel project to appear that puts two people in tandem but with high visibility of the road and enough crash worthiness to offset liability concerns. Perfect place for a hybrid electric/diesel powerplant. Unfortunately the cost of development and the fact you would as a manufacturer would have to “create a market” niche to sell is the insurmountable obstacle. But if someone like Toyota (ie: Scion) got involved — I think it could be a success and lead others into the industry then.
Other stuff? (in the USA market) I can see mid-sized scooters with roofs on them for protection from the elements — they are available in Europe. Perfect for jaunts to the store. There is a price point that needs to be kept to make successful though.
hoyt says
also worth mentioning is the research into electronic valve actuation
This is a great post & I agree
We are fortunate to be living during this exciting time of change ….
we have advancements in big air-cooled twins ( Go! X Wedge), compact in-line engines, etc. while the other power sources are in infancy. Hopefully we will live long enough to experience the next step (or leap) to its production phases. In some ways this could be better than living during the advent of the motorcycle due to this parallel development.
Hang onto that turn table….as good as cd’s are, there is something perfectly imperfect about the sound of a needle on vinyl …..until you have to get up off the couch too soon to flip it over.
long live kick start, but give me change too
todd says
If you are always on the lookout for the new and latest then there will be a manufacturer there to sell it to you. I do have an old turntable, casette deck, and VCR of my own as well as a few 10-20 year old computers and cell phones in a cabinet somewhere. I admit, I have no reason to hang on to those old things because they are simply no longer supported. I do though have quite a few old motorcycles and cars. As long as there is still gasoline to power them they are not obsolete. My old R75/5 runs down the road and takes me to work just as good as a $15,000 R1200S and is just as much fun too. While I appreciate the advancement in technology for cars and motorcycles, in the end they are still doing the exact same thing as the old versions. When gas is gone I’ll have to upgrade.
I think my 25 year old analog TV (still crisp and clear) is supposed to be obsolete since the government mandated that all TV stations drop analog broadcasts as of last month. I guess when they actually get around to digital-only I’ll stop watching TV (only around 1 hour/week now anyway), but when gasoline is gone I’ll buy and electric motorcycle.
-todd
mark says
There’s a flip side to all this. Examples:
Vacuum tubes are still the leading choice for electric guitar amplification because they sound better than solid-state electronics.
Black and white film still looks better than a digital image converted to black and white, and for serious black and white photographers will probably remain the preferred medium.
By the same token, while there will surely be advancements overall in motorcycle design and production, I believe that there’s a niche occupied by classic-styled air-cooled motorcycles that’s unlikely to go away. We may reach the point that these bikes are legislated out of existence, but I expect the market will always be there. There’s just something about the sound, feel, smell, and heat of an internal combustion engine that a whirring electrical motor won’t be able to replace.
–mark
todd says
oh, sorry, analog TV will go dark in Feb. 2009. I sure hope we don’t have the same fate for gasoline because, unlike for the TV’s, the government will probably not issue rebates for an at-home gas brewing/conversion kit for my old motorcycles, I’ll be SOL.
-todd
chris says
you can’t deny the performance POTENTIAL of an electric engine. or the joy of engineering something new and amazing. but Mark is right. that sound! what would MotoGP be if all the bikes came “whirring” not “screaming/teairng/growling” around the final turn onto the start/finish straight? less exciting. less involving for audience and rider. and, this is key, completely unromantic. motorcycles have always been romantic machines. never mearly utilitarian (at least not in more developed countries) the rider develops a strong emotional attachment that i think would be hard to find if the element of sound were taken away. look at me rambling on about an exhaust note! PROOF! it’s that important. it may be inevitable that the internal combustion engine goes Dodo Bird – but let’s not hasten it’s exit.
Gotham says
I think that motorcycles are the future.
The rising prices of gasoline have definitely shifted the automobile market towards more fuel efficient compact cars. If the trend continues, I believe, we will see motorcycles replacing these compact cars. Of course these will not be the motorcycles as we see them today. The similarity will probably end at the inline two wheels.
The largest market for motorcycles is India. With Hero Honda and Bajaj building mass production vehicles with tiny engines (6 to10 cu. in) producing an inconceivable 250 miles per gal.
I agree these are not the type of machines we would like to see ourselves on. As Chris puts it – less exciting, less involving and complete unromantic. But on the bright side it will keep motorcycling (in whatever form) alive.
As for the throb of the V-Twins – that will have to come out through our ipods.
Gotham
GenWaylaid says
It’s a misconception that electric motorcycles or electric vehicles in general are totally silent. There’s next to no noise when they’re creeping along, but at speed the tires and drivetrain still put out as much noise as on the gasoline version. The controller that feeds power to the motor also has a high-pitched whine, though that’s not as audible from the newest ones.
I can guarantee that at MotoGP speeds electric bikes will still scream. It will just be higher pitched and not as loud. Let’s hope that doesn’t lead to an unfortunate “wussy” image for electric bikes.
Motorcycles have more strict power to weight requirements than cars, so electric motorcycles are going to lag a couple years behind electric cars in practicality. I’ve seen some really nice lithium-ion packs that could make a practical (if expensive) bike, if you’re comfortable with a range of 100 miles and an hour of recharging for every hour of riding.
Steve says
The ‘Future’ and motorcycles… hmm? Interesting to contemplate…
In terms of near future, it’s hard to argue that, as Mark says, third world practicality/neccessity will guaratee continued use for some time.
In comparison the more affluent markets of the west present a different scenario entirely… apples to oranges. Recreational and sporting use is a matter of fashion and societal Zeitgeist. Considering the apparent direction western trends are moving it would not surprise me if motorcycles became a nostalgic historical footnote in time.
During my lifetime public perception and enacted legislation (insurance industry impelled?) have shifted from personal responsibilty for one’s own well-being to attempts to create a safety utopia of totally fool-proof activities. It’s a given that greater risk of injury exists riding a motorcycle for transportation than say using mass transit. One is in much less danger of physical harm if playing golf or computer games than jumping berms or hanging-off around turns.
Fashion trends in recreation have shifted far more into the sedentary realm over the last few decades. Generation X-ers are not all that visible in our sport, and the most recent motorcycle market boom has been largely fueled by the same consumers who created the one of decades past: the baby-boomers.
I don’t think it’s at all hyperbole to suggest that in years to come recreatinal motorcycling would become something appearing regularly only in video game virtual-reality and perhaps, as parade attractions and fodder for rallies, like steam engined tractors or bi-planes.
Come to think of it, the history of personal aviation presents a likely corollary. When I was a small boy it was affordable for many resonably employed people to own a small aircraft, if they so desired, and predictions at the time indicated that it would become very common some day. Look where THAT pastime went!
hoyt says
I don’t know how silent the next power source will become, but there is something alluring about miles of curvy roads, flicking your way back and forth in silence. The point of reference I’m drawing on is watching gliders at airshows. Although this comparison may fall well short, the point is that quieter bikes taken to a very quiet level may not be as bad as one would think. It could shift focus on the sensation of wind, contact with the road, & the motion of leaning back & forth more than in the past.
I totally agree with GenWaylaid that sound should not impede the respect of the next motorbike; albeit that is going to take some doing with the juvenile, “louder-is-better” crowd.
On the other hand, I love the sound of well tuned Guzzis, Ducatis, or singles…not to mention the safety role that sound plays.
It will all work itself out in the end to some desirable results and not so desirable results (depending on one’s taste)….except for the old bike snobs
gladys stoatpamphlet says
regarding the sound of an internal combustion engine, i personaly would much prefer to ride a motorbike that was very quite, rather than +110dBa at the exhaust.
i gain very little enjoyment from damaging my hearing.
listen up straigh pipe harley riders.
the internal combustion engine has been with us for a long time, but before that there was steam engines… and i suspect the argument for moving to petrol driven engines sparked many of the same arguments.
but the only reason i would give up I.C.E’s for ever is i would like a world to ride motorbikes and drive cars and unless we make moves to protect the environment no-one will be riding any motorbike.
skoorb says
as long as one rider crosses the line infront of another rider motoGP will still draw crowds.
the bikes sound is not what people want it is the competition between athletes.
this is what sport is all about!
simple huh.
Bryce says
The sound of a race bike or car is definitely spine tingling, but watching racing action with a turbine like electric whine wouldn’t be a turn off to me.
As for owning one, I would. I made the acquaintance of a man who equipped a mountain bike with a 15hp electric motor, a controller and some batteries. The thing weighed 130lb and could pull wheelies up to 35mph and topped out at 53mph. It is an utterly crazy machine with tremendous performance. Something scaled up to scooter and motorcycle size would be fine by me if the range and recharge rate issues get worked out.
I firmly believe that improved EV technology would be a cultural thing that would allow even more motorcycle start ups to spring up like mushrooms than we’ve seen in recent years. Not having to go through emissions certification with the EPA and CARB would dramatically reduce the hoops to jump through and cost of doing business. If all you have to do is meet FMVSS to keep the US DOT happy, life would be much easier for small motorcycle companies. The flexibility of packaging would also offer a number of opportunities for motorcycle makers to try really exotic and new things. I’m looking forward to it.
chris says
good point(s). i stand mostly corrected. but i’ll always love the sound of combustion. even if it DOES come from and iPod.
Dodgy says
I wonder what the current state of play would have been if the legislators in California had treated motorcycles as a separate form of transport from cars (and trucks for that matter). Had they legislated for ten percent of motorcycles to be ‘zero emission’, I wonder what would be commercially available now? I wonder whether the manufacturers would have been able or flexible enough to get their respective heads around it?
Hybrid Harley anyone?
Like so many dramatic changes it isn’t until (sadly) someone legislates a good idea that they get implemented, and by forcing manufacturers to deal with a problem (but giving them plenty of warning) that some pretty good solutions appear…
I know bikes aren’t regarded as a huge part of the problem (except in Asia with massive numbers of two strokes in the cities?), but sooner or later they will be ‘noticed’, and maybe it will be a very quick extinction at that point?
guitargeek says
The sound isn’t as important as the actual competition, at least for me. I can’t take the sound of a two stroke seriously, they all sound like weedeaters. I greatly prefer the sound of the GP bikes since they switched to four strokes, but it’d sure be interesting if we could actually hear knee pucks grinding on the tarmac…
How quickly would a pit stop go if the crew just had to swap batteries? Batteries are still the big thing holding back electric cars. Zinc air batteries are probably going to be the way to go, eventually. Gasoline is both very energy dense as well as ubiquitous. Eventually we might see a zinc pump at the 7-11…
GenWaylaid says
Perhaps the most interesting facet of electric motorcycles has yet to be addressed here: the components of the electrical system don’t have to be in any particular arrangement with respect to each other, so the bike can be nearly any shape desired. How would you lay out a bike with that kind of freedom?
Earl says
I still listen to vinyl records – they have a warmth and richness of tonal quality that digital reproduction can’t match. I use a film camera, too. I just prefer these things. Pry my SV from my cold, dead fingers, eh!
Joe says
Everyone is forgeting something here as far as sound. Ok picture this you are at a stop sign on a low visibility corner. You don’t see anyone so you start to go, but then you hear the low moan from a v twin or the whine of an inline. So you stop and that guy on his motorcycle gets to live. I ride about 10,000 miles a year and believe me, no matter what you ride, Pipes save lifes!